Global LNG Outlook 2018

BNEF’s long-term forecast of LNG markets to 2030.

BNEF’s long-term forecast of LNG markets to 2030.

Overview

Our Global LNG Outlook (GLO) examines the latest trends in the global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market, identifies the key drivers to changing market dynamics, forecasts the world’s LNG demand and supply to 2030, and explores their impact on LNG contracts and pricing.

This edition of the outlook reviews the market development in 2H 2017, and updates our long-term forecast on global LNG demand and supply to 2030. We take into account various factors which include, but are not limited to, the following: power market liberalization, cost competition between gas and other energy sources, infrastructure development, contracts and pricing mechanisms, buyer & seller’s commercial behaviors, and carbon tax and carbon emission targets.

Get the public report.

“Global imports of LNG will set a new record this year on the back of 7.2% growth. A further surge in demand to 2030 will be driven by environmental measures in China, rising power generation in South and Southeast Asia, and a reduction in domestic gas production in Europe.”

Highlights

1

Record LNG demand growth in 2017

Global LNG demand rose 25MMtpa in 2017 to reach 285MMtpa, recording the highest annual growth since the Fukushima incident in 2011 that resulted in a surge in Japan’s demand.

2

Followed by a demand slowdown on the horizon

Demand growth will plummet during 2019-22 and recover to >4% annually from 2023. By 2030, 490MMtpa of the fuel will be needed, driven by Asia and Europe.

3

Projects worth 118MMtpa will probably reach final investment decisions in 2018-20

Global capacity will peak at 396MMtpa in 2021. To support further demand growth, final investment decisions (FID) are likely to be made on 118MMtpa of export projects, mainly in U.S., Qatar, Mozambique, and Papua New Guinea.

4

Stagnant prices in the short term

As the market will likely be tightly supplied in 2018, and oil price appears resistant, spot LNG price are not expected to fall below $5/MMBtu in the summer. Anticipated supply overcapacity will add downward pressure in 2019-22.

Download

High-level findings of the Global LNG Outlook 2018 are available in a free public report:

Click to read Global LNG Trade

BNEF clients can access the full Global LNG Outlook report, related charts and datasets, and previous editions on web or on the Terminal.

Related content

 

September 14 2017

BNEF’s Sethia on LNG Global Demand Growth

Ashish Sethia, Lead Author of Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s (BNEF) Global LNG Outlook 2017, discusses findings from the report, launched on 13 September. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia.” (Source: Bloomberg)

September 13 2017

BNEF’s Dialynas on Why LNG’s Looming Glut May Not Be as Big as Feared

Anastacia Dialynas, US Gas Analyst for Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), discusses findings from BNEF’s Global LNG Outlook 2017, launched on 13 September. She speaks with Bloomberg’s Vonnie Quinn on “Bloomberg Markets.” (Source: Bloomberg)

August 2 2017

Global Gas Market May Be the One Place Where the Little Guy Wins

The failure of a $27 billion project last week may offer a lesson to natural gas exporters: Go small or go home. With a global glut dragging down prices, liquefied natural gas suppliers including Cheniere Energy Inc. and Tellurian Inc. are looking to build smaller and cheaper…

April 27 2017

BNEF: Evolution of Natural Gas Prices

In less than 2 minutes this video by BNEF drills in on how the changing supply and demand factors derived from the transformation in drilling technology to large weather swings have resulted in massive volatility and shifts in natural gas markets…

April 7 2017

The Role of Natural Gas in Energy Markets

Since the shale boom in the US in 2008, natural gas has seen its role in the energy market expanding. Known as the transition fuel or bridge fuel, natural gas is seen as a half-way between coal power and renewable energy in terms of emissions. The gas industry faces two main questions…

Want to learn how we help our clients put it all together? Contact us