BNEF’s long-term forecast of LNG markets to 2030.
Our Global LNG Outlook (GLO) examines the latest trends in the global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market, identifies the key drivers to changing market dynamics, forecasts the world’s LNG demand and supply to 2030, and explores their impact on LNG contracts and pricing.
This edition of the outlook reviews the market development in 2H 2017, and updates our long-term forecast on global LNG demand and supply to 2030. We take into account various factors which include, but are not limited to, the following: power market liberalization, cost competition between gas and other energy sources, infrastructure development, contracts and pricing mechanisms, buyer & seller’s commercial behaviors, and carbon tax and carbon emission targets.
“Global imports of LNG will set a new record this year on the back of 7.2% growth. A further surge in demand to 2030 will be driven by environmental measures in China, rising power generation in South and Southeast Asia, and a reduction in domestic gas production in Europe.”
Record LNG demand growth in 2017
Global LNG demand rose 25MMtpa in 2017 to reach 285MMtpa, recording the highest annual growth since the Fukushima incident in 2011 that resulted in a surge in Japan’s demand.
Followed by a demand slowdown on the horizon
Demand growth will plummet during 2019-22 and recover to >4% annually from 2023. By 2030, 490MMtpa of the fuel will be needed, driven by Asia and Europe.
Projects worth 118MMtpa will probably reach final investment decisions in 2018-20
Global capacity will peak at 396MMtpa in 2021. To support further demand growth, final investment decisions (FID) are likely to be made on 118MMtpa of export projects, mainly in U.S., Qatar, Mozambique, and Papua New Guinea.
Stagnant prices in the short term
As the market will likely be tightly supplied in 2018, and oil price appears resistant, spot LNG price are not expected to fall below $5/MMBtu in the summer. Anticipated supply overcapacity will add downward pressure in 2019-22.
High-level findings of the Global LNG Outlook 2018 are available in a free public report: