Electric
Vehicle
Outlook
2020
BloombergNEF clients have access to the full findings and charts from the Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 as listed below.
Interested in learning more? Read some highlights from EVO 2020.
Full table of figures
Figure 1: Global short-term EV share of new passenger vehicle sales by region………… 2
Figure 2: Global long-term EV share of new passenger vehicle sales by region…………. 2
Figure 3: Annual passenger EV sales by region………………………………………………….. 3
Figure 4: Regional shares of annual passenger EV sales………………………………………. 3
Figure 5: Global annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain……………………………….. 4
Figure 6: Global share of total annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain…………….. 4
Figure 7: Global passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain…………………………………………. 4
Figure 8: Global share of annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain…… 4
Figure 9: Global passenger vehicle fleet by region…………………………………………… 5
Figure 10: Global annual kilometers traveled by the passenger vehicle fleet by type…. 5
Figure 11: Current fleet of electric buses, electric vans and trucks and electric two- and three-wheelers…………………………………………………………………………………………… 6
Figure 12: Global electric two-wheeler sales by region……………………………………….. 6
Figure 13: Global electric two-wheeler fleet by region………………………………………… 6
Figure 14: Global commercial vehicle drivetrain sales forecast……………………………… 7
Figure 15: EV share of global new vehicle sales by segment…………………………………. 7
Figure 16: EV share of global vehicle fleet by segment………………………………………… 7
Figure 17: Annual global EV sales by segment…………………………………………………… 8
Figure 18: Global EV fleet by segment…………………………………………………………….. 8
Figure 19: Electricity demand outlook for selected regions by segment………………….. 9
Figure 20: Oil demand from road transport………………………………………………………. 9
Figure 21: Oil demand avoided by alternative drivetrains and shared mobility…………. 9
Figure 22: Evolution of oil demand from road transport – all segments………………… 10
Figure 23: Total global CO2 emissions from road transportation………………………….. 10
Figure 24: Growth in transport CO2 emissions per country, 2018-2040…………………. 10
Figure 25: Lithium-ion battery demand outlook……………………………………………….. 11
Figure 26: Cumulative global installed charging infrastructure by category……………. 12
Figure 27: Total kilometers traveled by passenger cars and commercial vehicles in 2019……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 14
Figure 28: Global passenger vehicle fleet in 2019…………………………………………….. 14
Figure 29: Global passenger vehicle sales in 2019…………………………………………….. 14
Figure 30: Sales of commercial vehicles and two-wheeled vehicles in 2019……………. 15
Figure 31: Global passenger EV sales by region………………………………………………… 16
Figure 32: Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain……………………………………………. 16
Figure 33: Cumulative global EV fleet size, by segment……………………………………… 16
Figure 34: Global market share for passenger EV lithium-ion batteries in 2019………. 17
Figure 35: Annual lithium-ion battery demand by application…………………………….. 17
Figure 36: Volume-weighted average lithium-ion pack price………………………………. 17
Figure 37: Share of public EV charging infrastructure by speed in 2019…………………. 18
Figure 38: Cumulative global public charging connectors…………………………………… 18
Figure 39: EV share of selected automakers’ total sales in 2019………………………….. 19
Figure 40: Impact of Covid-19 on passenger kilometers traveled by type………………. 21
Figure 41: Impact of Covid-19 on passenger kilometers traveled by country………….. 21
Figure 42: Impact of Covid-19 on commercial vehicle kilometers traveled by weight class……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 22
Figure 43: Impact of Covid-19 on commercial vehicle kilometers traveled by country 22
Figure 44: Year-on-year declines in vehicle sales from 1Q 2019 to 1Q 2020 by vehicle segment and country…………………………………………………………………………………. 22
Figure 45: Medium-term outlook for vehicle sales, by segment…………………………… 23
Figure 46: EV share of new passenger vehicle sales………………………………………….. 25
Figure 47: Global passenger EV sales by type…………………………………………………… 26
Figure 48: Global passenger EV sales by region………………………………………………… 26
Figure 49: Passenger EV fleet forecast, 2019 outlook versus 2020 outlook…………….. 26
Figure 50: Covid-19 impacts on public transit use in selected cities………………………. 28
Figure 51: Covid-19 impacts on ride-hailing use in selected Chinese cities……………… 29
Figure 52: Simplified passenger EV forecast methodology………………………………….. 31
Figure 53: Breakdown of vehicle kilometers traveled by segment in selected regions, 2019………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 32
Figure 54: Annual kilometers traveled by the global passenger vehicle fleet by region 33
Figure 55: Annual kilometers traveled by the global passenger vehicle fleet by type.. 33
Figure 56: Global passenger vehicle fleet by region………………………………………….. 33
Figure 57: Global passenger vehicle fleet by type…………………………………………….. 33
Figure 58: Robotaxi fleets in selected regions, 2040………………………………………….. 34
Figure 59: Global annual passenger vehicle sales by region………………………………… 34
Figure 60: Global annual passenger vehicle sales by type…………………………………… 34
Figure 61: Long-term demographic shifts that will depress new passenger vehicle sales……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 35
Figure 62: Long-term population shifts in selected markets by age group……………… 36
Figure 63: Long-term urbanization shifts in selected markets……………………………… 36
Figure 64: Urbanization vs. GDP per capita, selected markets in 2040…………………… 37
Figure 65: Long-term outlook for passenger vehicle fleet sizes and annual vehicle kilometers traveled in selected markets…………………………………………………………. 37
Figure 66: Share of kilometers traveled in private and shared vehicles by market, 2040 38
Figure 67: Global share of new vehicle sales with different automation levels………… 39
Figure 68: Global new vehicle sales with different automation levels……………………. 39
Figure 69: Share of new vehicle sales with advanced emergency braking and lane keeping assist, by market……………………………………………………………………………. 40
Figure 70: U.S. annual passenger vehicle sales by automation level……………………… 41
Figure 71: India annual passenger vehicle sales by automation level……………………. 41
Figure 72: Medium segment BEV and ICE pre-tax prices and share of battery cost in the U.S…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 42
Figure 73: Global passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain……………………………………… 43
Figure 74: Global passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain……………………………………… 43
Figure 75: Global short-term EV share of new passenger vehicle sales by region…….. 44
Figure 76: Global long-term EV share of new passenger vehicle sales by region……… 44
Figure 77: Annual passenger EV sales by region……………………………………………….. 44
Figure 78: Regional shares of annual passenger EV sales……………………………………. 44
Figure 79: China short-term annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain……………… 45
Figure 80: China short-term EV share of total annual passenger vehicle sales…………. 45
Figure 81: China passenger EV sales by user type…………………………………………….. 46
Figure 82: Proportion of required NEV credits to ICE passenger car production and imports…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 47
Figure 83: Estimated share of EV sales needed to meet NEV credit targets……………. 47
Figure 84: Fleet average fuel economy for new vehicle sales in China…………………… 47
Figure 85: Historical CAFC credit surpluses……………………………………………………… 47
Figure 86: China annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain…………………………….. 49
Figure 87: China share of total annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain………….. 49
Figure 88: China passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain……………………………………….. 49
Figure 89: China share of total passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain…………………….. 49
Figure 90: China total annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain……… 50
Figure 91: China share of annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain…. 50
Figure 92: Europe short-term annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain……………. 51
Figure 93: Europe short-term EV share of total annual passenger vehicle sales………. 51
Figure 94: EVs as a percentage of total new passenger vehicle sales in selected countries in 2019……………………………………………………………………………………………………. 52
Figure 95: EV sales needed in Europe to meet EU emissions targets, pre Covid-19….. 53
Figure 96: Share of EVs needed to meet Europe’s 2025 and 2030 CO2 emissions targets……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 54
Figure 97: Europe annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain…………………………… 55
Figure 98: Europe share of total annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain………… 55
Figure 99: Passenger EV share of total annual sales in Europe…………………………….. 56
Figure 100: Europe passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain…………………………………… 56
Figure 101: Europe share of total passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain…………………. 56
Figure 102: Europe total annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain….. 57
Figure 103: Europe share of annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain 57
Figure 104: Price and volume of all passenger vehicles sold in the U.S………………….. 58
Figure 105: Percentage of buyers willing to pay for a passenger vehicle at a given price point in the U.S…………………………………………………………………………………………. 58
Figure 106: Tesla’s share of the U.S. EV market……………………………………………….. 59
Figure 107: U.S. plug-in hybrid electric vehicle sales…………………………………………. 59
Figure 108: U.S. battery electric vehicle sales………………………………………………….. 59
Figure 109: U.S. short-term annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain………………. 59
Figure 110: U.S. short-term EV share of total annual passenger vehicle sales…………. 59
Figure 111: U.S. households by number of vehicles, 2017………………………………….. 61
Figure 112: BEV price parity with ICE vehicles…………………………………………….. 61
Figure 113: U.S. annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain……………………………… 61
Figure 114: U.S. share of total annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain…………… 61
Figure 115: U.S. passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain……………………………………….. 62
Figure 116: U.S. share of total passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain…………………….. 62
Figure 117: U.S. total annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain………. 62
Figure 118: U.S. share of annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain…. 62
Figure 119: India short-term annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain…………….. 63
Figure 120: India short-term EV share of total annual passenger vehicle sales………… 63
Figure 121: India long-term passenger EV sales by customer type……………………….. 64
Figure 122: India annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain……………………………. 65
Figure 123: India share of total annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain………….. 65
Figure 124: India passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain………………………………………. 65
Figure 125: India share of total passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain……………………. 65
Figure 126: India total annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain…….. 66
Figure 127: India share of annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain… 66
Figure 128: India long-term two-wheeler sales by drivetrain………………………………. 66
Figure 129: India EV share of long-term vehicle sales by segment………………………… 66
Figure 130: Electric three-wheeler fleet outlook for India………………………………….. 67
Figure 131: Japan passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain in fiscal year 2018…………….. 68
Figure 132: Japan short-term annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain……………. 68
Figure 133: Japan short-term EV share of total annual passenger vehicle sales……….. 68
Figure 134: Japan annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain…………………………… 69
Figure 135: Japan share of total annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain………… 69
Figure 136: Japan passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain……………………………………… 70
Figure 137: Japan share of total passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain…………………… 70
Figure 138: Japan total annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain……. 70
Figure 139: Japan share of annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain.. 70
Figure 140: South Korea’s passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain as of March 2020…… 71
Figure 141: South Korea short-term annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain…… 72
Figure 142: South Korea short-term EV share of total annual passenger vehicle sales. 72
Figure 143: South Korea annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain………………….. 72
Figure 144: South Korea share of total annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain… 72
Figure 145: South Korea passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain…………………………….. 73
Figure 146: South Korea share of total passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain………….. 73
Figure 147: South Korea total annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain 73
Figure 148: South Korea share of annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain………………………………………………………………………………………………… 73
Figure 149: Australia short-term annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain……….. 74
Figure 150: Australia short-term EV share of total annual passenger vehicle sales…… 74
Figure 151: Australia annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain……………………….. 75
Figure 152: Australia share of total annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain…….. 75
Figure 153: Australia passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain…………………………………. 76
Figure 154: Australia share of total passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain………………. 76
Figure 155: Australia total annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain.. 76
Figure 156: Australia share of annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 76
Figure 157: Rest-of-World short-term annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain…. 77
Figure 158: Rest-of-World short-term EV share of total annual passenger vehicle sales 77
Figure 159: Rest-of-World annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain………………… 78
Figure 160: Rest-of-World share of total annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain 78
Figure 161: Rest-of-World passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain………………………….. 79
Figure 162: Rest-of-World share of total passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain……….. 79
Figure 163: Rest-of-World total annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 79
Figure 164: Rest-of-World share of annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain………………………………………………………………………………………………… 79
Figure 165: Number of national, regional and municipal governments announcing plans to phase out sales of combustion vehicles………………………………………………………. 80
Figure 166: Years remaining until ICE sales phase-out targets in select countries…….. 80
Figure 167: The trucking market and current activity of alternative fuels, by truck segment………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 84
Figure 168: Commercial EV sales in China and Europe……………………………………….. 85
Figure 169: Freight demand in the U.S., China, Europe, India, Japan and South Korea. 85
Figure 170: Freight demand in Rest of World………………………………………………….. 85
Figure 171: Short-term commercial vehicle sales in the U.S., China, Europe and India 86
Figure 172: Short-term commercial vehicle sales in Japan, Korea and Rest of World… 86
Figure 173: Commercial vehicle sales forecast in Rest of World…………………………… 87
Figure 174: Commercial vehicle sales forecast by class in the U.S., China, Europe, India, Japan and South Korea……………………………………………………………………………….. 87
Figure 175: Commercial vehicle sales forecast in the U.S., China, Europe, India, Japan and South Korea……………………………………………………………………………………….. 88
Figure 176: Commercial vehicle drivetrain sales forecast in the U.S., China, Europe, India, Japan and South Korea………………………………………………………………………. 90
Figure 177: Commercial EV sales in Rest of World……………………………………………. 91
Figure 178: Share of EV in commercial vehicle sales in the U.S., China, Europe, India, Japan and South Korea……………………………………………………………………………….. 91
Figure 179: Share of EV in commercial vehicle fleet in the U.S., China, Europe, India, Japan and South Korea……………………………………………………………………………….. 91
Figure 180: Share of EV in commercial vehicle sales in the U.S., China, Europe, India, Japan and S. Korea…………………………………………………………………………………….. 92
Figure 181: Share of EV in commercial vehicle fleet in the U.S., China, Europe, India, Japan and S. Korea…………………………………………………………………………………….. 92
Figure 182: E-bus share of global bus sales……………………………………………………… 95
Figure 183: Global e-bus fleet………………………………………………………………………. 95
Figure 184: Global municipal bus fleet, all fuel types………………………………………… 96
Figure 185: E-bus share of bus fleet………………………………………………………………. 96
Figure 186: China total e-bus sales………………………………………………………………… 97
Figure 187: Municipal e-bus sales, excluding China…………………………………………… 97
Figure 188: Global municipal e-bus fleet………………………………………………………… 98
Figure 189: E-bus share of bus fleet………………………………………………………………. 98
Figure 190: Global bus sales by drivetrain………………………………………………………. 99
Figure 191: Global bus fleet by drivetrain……………………………………………………….. 99
Figure 192: Fuel-cell vehicle sales by segment……………………………………………….. 102
Figure 193: Fuel-cell vehicle share of fleet by segment…………………………………….. 102
Figure 194: Fuel-cell passenger vehicle sales outlook………………………………………. 103
Figure 195: Fuel-cell vehicle share of passenger vehicle fleet……………………………. 103
Figure 196: Fuel-cell light-duty commercial vehicle sales………………………………….. 105
Figure 197: Fuel-cell share of light-duty commercial vehicle fleet………………………. 105
Figure 198: Fuel-cell medium-duty commercial vehicle sales…………………………….. 105
Figure 199: Fuel-cell share of medium-duty commercial vehicle fleet…………………. 105
Figure 200: Fuel-cell heavy-duty commercial vehicle sales……………………………….. 105
Figure 201: Fuel-cell share of heavy-duty commercial vehicle fleet…………………….. 105
Figure 202: Fuel-cell municipal* bus sales…………………………………………………….. 106
Figure 203: Fuel-cell share of municipal bus* fleet………………………………………….. 106
Figure 204: Global two-wheeler sales by market…………………………………………….. 108
Figure 205: Global two-wheeler fleet by market…………………………………………….. 108
Figure 206: Global two-wheeler sales outlook by market…………………………………. 109
Figure 207: Global two-wheeler fleet outlook by market………………………………….. 109
Figure 208: Electric two-wheeler sales share by market………………………………. 110
Figure 209: Electric two-wheeler fleet share by market……………………………….. 110
Figure 210: Electric two/three-wheeler manufacturers by headquarters, excluding mainland-China…………………………………………………………………………………….. 110
Figure 211: Funds raised by selected electric two/three-wheeler manufacturers 110
Figure 212: Upfront price outlook for various lithium-ion electric mopeds, scooters and motorcycles by driving range……………………………………………………………………… 111
Figure 213: Total-cost-of-ownership comparison for various gasoline and lithium-ion electric scooters by driving range………………………………………………………………… 112
Figure 214: Global electric two-wheeler sales outlook…………………………………….. 112
Figure 215: Global electric two-wheeler fleet outlook……………………………………… 112
Figure 216: Top two-wheeler markets by annual sales in 2030………………………….. 113
Figure 217: Three-wheeler fleet outlook for China and India by drivetrain…………… 113
Figure 218: Lithium-ion battery price and demand outlook………………………………. 115
Figure 219: Lithium-ion battery-pack price outlook…………………………………………. 116
Figure 220: Volume-weighted average lithium-ion battery price………………………… 116
Figure 221: VW’s e-golf battery pack……………………………………………………………. 118
Figure 222: VW’s MEB battery pack…………………………………………………………….. 118
Figure 223: Battery-cell cost reduction outlook……………………………………………… 118
Figure 224: Lithium-cell manufacturing capacity by region of plant location…………. 120
Figure 225: Greenfield battery manufacturing capex……………………………………….. 120
Figure 226: Battery manufacturing capex by country………………………………………. 121
Figure 227: Component demand from lithium-ion batteries……………………………… 122
Figure 228: Current and planned cathode active-material manufacturing capacity… 123
Figure 229: Historic and forecasted changes to battery-pack energy density………… 123
Figure 230: Evolution of cathode chemistry 2018-2030, across all passenger EV segments……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 125
Figure 231: Metal content of lithium-ion battery cathode materials…………………… 126
Figure 232: Evolution of cathode chemistry 2018-2030, e-buses………………………… 128
Figure 233: Evolution of cathode chemistry 2018-2030, commercial EVs……………… 128
Figure 234: Evolution of cathode chemistry 2018-2030, electric two-wheelers……… 129
Figure 235: Lithium supply and demand outlook…………………………………………….. 130
Figure 236: Cobalt supply and demand outlook……………………………………………… 131
Figure 237: Class I nickel supply and demand outlook……………………………………… 132
Figure 238: Evolution of oil demand from road transport…………………………………. 133
Figure 239: Passenger-vehicle oil demand forecast…………………………………………. 134
Figure 240: Oil demand avoided by privately owned electric and fuel-cell passenger vehicles, and shared mobility…………………………………………………………………….. 134
Figure 241: Oil displaced by EVs, fuel-cell vehicles and shared and autonomous mobility……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 135
Figure 242: Shared and autonomous kilometers by drivetrain…………………………… 135
Figure 243: Commercial-vehicle oil demand forecast………………………………………. 136
Figure 244: Commercial-vehicle oil demand avoided by alternative drive trains……. 136
Figure 245: Commercial-vehicle applications…………………………………………………. 136
Figure 246: Two- and three-wheeler oil demand forecast…………………………………. 137
Figure 247: Oil demand avoided by electric two- and three-wheelers…………………. 137
Figure 248: Oil demand avoided by electric and fuel-cell buses by region…………….. 138
Figure 249: Oil demand eroded by electric and fuel-cell buses by drivetrain…………. 138
Figure 250: Oil demand growth forecast by region………………………………………….. 139
Figure 251: Oil demand forecast by fuel……………………………………………………….. 139
Figure 252: Oil demand forecast for passenger vehicles, commercial trucks and two- and three-wheelers by region………………………………………………………………………….. 139
Figure 253: Share of oil displaced by electric and fuel-cell vehicles, by region, by mode and by fuel…………………………………………………………………………………………….. 140
Figure 254: Global electricity demand by electric-vehicle segment…………………….. 141
Figure 255: Share of electricity demand from different electric-vehicle segments, including China……………………………………………………………………………………….. 141
Figure 256: Share of electricity demand from different electric-vehicle segments, excluding China………………………………………………………………………………………. 141
Figure 257: Electricity demand outlook for selected regions by segment……………… 142
Figure 258: Twenty-four-hour electricity demand for selected electric vehicle types in 2035 based on ‘dumb’ charging curves………………………………………………………… 143
Figure 259: Total global CO2 emissions from road transportation………………………. 144
Figure 260: Total global CO2 emissions from road transportation by energy source.. 144
Figure 261: Total global CO2 emissions from road transportation by region…………. 144
Figure 262: Growth in emissions per country, 2018-2040…………………………………. 144
Figure 263: Road transport emissions avoided by the penetration of electric and fuel cell vehicles…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 145
Figure 264: Cumulative installed public charging connectors…………………………….. 147
Figure 265: Share of global public EV charging infrastructure by speed in 2019…….. 148
Figure 266: Share of public EV charging connectors by speed, selected countries in 2019……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 148
Figure 267: Global ratio of EVs to public charging connectors……………………………. 149
Figure 268: EVs per public charging connector across various regions over time……. 149
Figure 269: China cumulative private charger installations and percentage of EVs sold with a private charger………………………………………………………………………………. 150
Figure 270: Simplified charging infrastructure forecast methodology………………….. 151
Figure 271: Global electricity demand by vehicle type……………………………………… 151
Figure 272: Global electricity demand by charging location………………………………. 151
Figure 273: Cumulative global installed charging infrastructure by category: home and work, public, commercial………………………………………………………………………….. 152
Figure 274: Regional overview of passenger EV charging infrastructure demand…… 153
Figure 275: Cumulative public charging infrastructure needed for passenger vehicles and vans……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 154
Figure 276: Cumulative electric commercial truck and bus charging infrastructure needed………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 154
Figure 277: Cumulative global charging infrastructure investment……………………… 155
Figure 278: 11kW charger prices and installation cost assumptions, excluding China 156
Figure 279: 50-500kW charger prices and installation cost assumptions, excluding China……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 156
Figure 280: Annual investment required by region for public charging infrastructure 156
Figure 281: Comparison of BNEF’s outlook for total passenger vehicle sales…………. 159
Figure 282: Comparison of BNEF’s outlook for total kilometers traveled by the passenger vehicle fleet……………………………………………………………………………………………. 159
Figure 283: Comparison of BNEF’s outlook for global passenger EV annual sales…… 160
Figure 284: Comparison of BNEF’s outlook for global passenger EV share of total sales……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 160
Figure 285: Comparison on BNEF outlook for Rest of World EV fleet size…………….. 160
Figure 286: Simplified passenger EV forecast methodology………………………………. 163
Figure 287: Passenger vehicle demand, sales and fleet simplified forecast methodology……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 164
Figure 288: Historical annual distance traveled by passenger vehicles in the U.S. divided by GDP per capita……………………………………………………………………………………. 164
Figure 289: Annual distance traveled by the U.S. passenger-vehicle fleet…………….. 164
Figure 290: Shared-mobility services and robotaxis share of annual distance traveled by the U.S. passenger vehicle fleet………………………………………………………………….. 165
Figure 291: Annual distance traveled by the U.S. passenger vehicle fleet by type….. 165
Figure 292: U.S. passenger vehicle fleet by type…………………………………………….. 165
Figure 293: U.S. passenger vehicle sales by type…………………………………………….. 165
Figure 294: Current and upcoming electric and fuel-cell vehicle models available for purchase……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 166
Figure 295: Medium segment BEV and ICE pre-tax prices and share of battery cost in the U.S……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 169
Figure 296: Total cost of ownership of medium ICEs and BEVs in the U.S. and China. 170
Figure 297: Global private passenger EV sales forecast by segment……………………. 172
Figure 298: Freight demand, commercial vehicle sales and fleet simplified forecast methodology………………………………………………………………………………………….. 174
Figure 299: Estimate of the global addressable market for digital freight brokerages 177
Figure 300: Simplified two-wheeler forecasting methodology…………………………… 178
Figure 301: Simplified charging infrastructure forecast methodology………………….. 179
Figure 302: Energy demand split for battery-electric passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial EVs by charger type…………………………………………………………………. 180
Figure 303: Energy demand split for battery-electric medium- and heavy-duty commercial EVs and e-buses by charger type………………………………………………… 180
Figure 304: Global electricity demand by vehicle type……………………………………… 181
Figure 305: Global electricity demand by charging location………………………………. 181