The Electric Vehicle Outlook is BloombergNEF’s annual long-term publication looking at how electrification, shared mobility and autonomous driving will impact road transport from now out to 2050. It covers light-duty passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, buses, and two/three-wheeled vehicles. The report draws on our team of specialists around the world and looks at scenarios for how these trends will impact the automotive, energy, infrastructure and battery materials markets over the coming decades.
Reaching net zero by 2050
Road transport is one of the largest contributors to global CO2 emissions. Despite the expected rapid rise in EV sales, most countries are still not on track to bring road transport emissions to zero by mid-century.
Our new Net Zero Scenario looks at what is needed to reach ‘net-zero’ emissions in road transport by 2050. In this scenario, 100% of the world’s road fleet runs on electricity or hydrogen by that year. As soon as 2030, nearly 60% of new car sales must be zero emissions, to stay on track for the Net Zero Scenario.
In our Economic Transition Scenario, EV adoption is primarily driven by techno-economic trends and market forces, with no new policy measures introduced to support their growth. This scenario also sees an EV-dominated fleet by 2050, but 39% of passenger vehicles still burn fuels.
This picture varies by segment. Municipal buses, two-wheelers and three-wheelers are almost on track to get to zero emissions by 2050, even in the Economic Transition Scenario. Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles are on a positive trajectory, but will still need more policy support. But urgent action is needed on heavy vehicles in all countries.
The last internal combustion vehicles need to roll off the line around 2035, and even that will require some early retirements of older vehicles in the 2040s.
Rising policy pressure
Number of countries that have announced plans to phase out sales of internal combustion vehicles.
Implications for energy and emissions
All those EVs add electricity demand, but not as much as you might think. In our Economic Transition Scenario, EVs of all types add 5,000TWh of electricity demand by 2050. In the Net Zero Scenario, demand reached 8,500TWh globally by 2050. Almost fully electrifying all of road transport adds just 25% to global electricity demand in 2050. In many advanced economies, EVs prevent overall electricity demand from falling.
Dr. Nikolas Soulopoulos
Commercial vehicles and freight
Dr. James Frith
Dr. Kwasi Ampofo
Metals and mining
Allen Tom Abraham
Two and three wheelers
Alejandro Zamorano-Cadavid, Nannan Kou, Will Edmonds, Josh Landess, Komal Kareer, Takehiro Kawahara, Ali Izadi