Electric
Vehicle
Outlook
2022
The Electric Vehicle Outlook is our annual long-term publication looking at how electrification, shared mobility, autonomous driving and other factors will impact road transport in the coming decades. The report draws on our team of specialists around the world and looks at scenarios for how these trends will impact the automotive, oil, electricity, infrastructure and battery materials markets, as well as CO2 emissions.
The picture today
EV sales
EV sales are surging due to a combination of policy support, improvements in battery technology, more charging infrastructure and new compelling models from automakers. Electrification is also spreading to new segments of road transport, setting the stage for huge changes ahead.
All figures 2021
Passenger EV sales
China still dominates the global EV market, but sales are rising quickly elsewhere too. Battery electrics are pulling ahead of plug-in hybrids and the gap is set to widen further in the years ahead.
Global passenger EV sales by market
Global passenger EV sales by market
Global passenger EV sales by market
Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain
Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain
Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain
Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain
Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain
Note: Includes highway-capable passenger EVs. Excludes low-speed EVs, e-buses and commercial EVs. All figures 2021.
Number of public charging stations
More and more charging points are being built, but each country will have its own optimal mix of home, workplace and public chargers.
Cumulative global public charging connectors
Source: BNEF, China Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Promotion Alliance (EVCIPA), U.S. alternative fuels data centre, Tesla, Chargehub, a range of public and private sources. All figures 2021.
Cumulative global public charging connectors
Source: BNEF, China Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Promotion Alliance (EVCIPA), U.S. alternative fuels data centre, Tesla, Chargehub, a range of public and private sources. All figures 2021.
Cumulative global public charging connectors
Source: BNEF, China Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Promotion Alliance (EVCIPA), U.S. alternative fuels data centre, Tesla, Chargehub, a range of public and private sources. All figures 2021.
Cumulative global public charging connectors
Source: BNEF, China Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Promotion Alliance (EVCIPA), U.S. alternative fuels data centre, Tesla, Chargehub, a range of public and private sources. All figures 2021.
Cumulative global public charging connectors
Source: BNEF, China Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Promotion Alliance (EVCIPA), U.S. alternative fuels data centre, Tesla, Chargehub, a range of public and private sources. All figures 2021.
Oil displacement from EVs
EVs of all types are already displacing 1.5 million barrels per day of oil usage, equivalent to about 3% of total road fuel demand.
Oil displacement by vehicle segment
Oil displacement from EVs
EVs of all types are already displacing 1.5 million barrels per day of oil usage, equivalent to about 3% of total road fuel demand.
Oil displacement by vehicle segment
Oil displacement from EVs
EVs of all types are already displacing 1.5 million barrels per day of oil usage, equivalent to about 3% of total road fuel demand.
Oil displacement by vehicle segment
Oil displacement from EVs
EVs of all types are already displacing 1.5 million barrels per day of oil usage, equivalent to about 3% of total road fuel demand.
Oil displacement by vehicle segment
Oil displacement from EVs
EVs of all types are already displacing 1.5 million barrels per day of oil usage, equivalent to about 3% of total road fuel demand.
Oil displacement by vehicle segment
Lithium-ion battery demand
Battery demand is rising sharply, putting pressure on the supply chain for materials like lithium, cobalt and nickel.
Annual lithium-ion battery demand by application
Source: BNEF.
Lithium-ion battery demand
Battery demand is rising sharply, putting pressure on the supply chain for materials like lithium, cobalt and nickel.
Annual lithium-ion battery demand by application
Source: BNEF.
Lithium-ion battery demand
Battery demand is rising sharply, putting pressure on the supply chain for materials like lithium, cobalt and nickel.
Annual lithium-ion battery demand by application
Source: BNEF.
Lithium-ion battery demand
Battery demand is rising sharply, putting pressure on the supply chain for materials like lithium, cobalt and nickel.
Annual lithium-ion battery demand by application
Source: BNEF.
Lithium-ion battery demand
Battery demand is rising sharply, putting pressure on the supply chain for materials like lithium, cobalt and nickel.
Annual lithium-ion battery demand by application
Source: BNEF.
Reaching net zero by 2050
This year’s report includes a “Net Zero” scenario which investigates what a potential route to carbon neutrality looks across all segments of road transport by 2050. It also includes five thematic highlights on important emerging topic areas:
- The EV adoption gap between wealthy and emerging economies
- Heavy duty long-haul trucking: batteries versus hydrogen fuel cells
- The value of vehicle-to-grid: A U.K. case study
- The supply and demand dynamics for battery metals from now to 2030
- Reshaping mobility demand through modal shifts
Key numbers
$53 Trillion
Size of the electric vehicle market opportunity between today and 2050 in the Economic Transition Scenario
2027
Peak year for road transport oil demand
27%
Increase in global electricity demand in 2050 caused by electrifying almost all of road transport in the Net Zero Scenario
Executive summary
See the executive summary below to find out more on the implications of EV adoption for energy markets, raw materials, emissions, charging infrastructure and more.
Report authors
Colin McKerracher
Lead author
@colinmckerrache
Aleksandra O’Donovan
Passenger vehicles
Dr. Nikolas Soulopoulos
Commercial vehicles and freight
Andrew Grant
Modeling and shared mobility
@agrant49
Siyi Mi
Two and three wheelers
@siyi_mi
David Doherty
Oil
Ryan Fisher
Charging infrastructure
Corey Cantor
Electric buses
Jinghong Lyu
Modeling
Dr. Kwasi Ampofo
Metals and mining
Dr. Andy Leach
Batteries
Yayoi Sekine
Batteries
Laura Malo Yague
Data
William Edmonds
Australia
Komal Kareer
India
Takehiro Kawahara
Commercial vehicles