BNEF’s annual forecast of electric vehicles, shared mobility and road transport to 2040.
The Electric Vehicle Outlook is our annual long-term forecast of how electrification and shared mobility will impact road transport from now to 2040. The report draws on our team of specialists around the world and also looks at how these trends will affect electricity demand, oil use and demand for battery materials.
What’s new in the 2019 EV Outlook?
This year’s forecast includes new analysis on how shared mobility will impact vehicle sales patterns, on the long-term demand for freight, and on how electrification will play out in the commercial vehicle market. We have also included our latest analysis on the outlook for battery prices and battery chemistry.
BNEF clients can access the full report, its breakdown by technology and region, as well as the underlying Excel data and previous editions. Go to client page or access on the Bloomberg Terminal. If you are not a client, you can read an excerpt of the findings in a free public summary.
The important updates in this year’s EV Outlook are the following:
- A comprehensive forecast of electrification in the global commercial vehicle market. This includes light, medium and heavy duty trucks in urban, regional and long-haul duty cycles. It also covers other alternative drivetrains like natural gas and hydrogen fuel cells.
- A more detailed view of the impact that autonomy, ride-hailing and sharing will have on the overall car market, including a new overall vehicle-demand forecast.
- An updated EV cost model that includes the cost of a home EV charger to more accurately reflect the costs individuals face to go electric.
- An updated e-bus forecast taking into account 2018 sales, urbanization forecasts and manufacturing capacity.
- A more detailed view of oil displacement by market and refined products.
- Updated lithium-ion battery price and chemistry forecast based on our most recent market survey. We have developed a battery chemistry forecast for each of the new segments covered in this year’s report.
- Update on metals availability for batteries based on our supply/demand forecast for key metals including cobalt, lithium and nickel.
- Finally, we have re-run our consumer adoption bass-diffusion model using the most recent EV sales data and vehicle pricing. The EV market is still in the early stages so each additional year of data helps calibrate results.
View the interactive report
High-level findings of the Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019 are available in the free public report.
Siyi Mi, Ali Asghar, Allen Tom Abraham, Nannan Kou, Milo Boers, Richard Chatterton, Justin Commerford, Ryan Fisher, Leo Chen, Minji An, Alejandro Zamorano-Cadavid.