Key Takeaways
- 4.2m b/d: Net oil refining capacity growth worldwide from 2026 through 2030 in BNEF’s outloook, up 162% from the preceding five years
- 95%: Africa and Asia Pacific region’s share of collective net refining capacity growth by 2030
- 50%: Share of capacity additions already operational or under construction from 2026 to 2030, according to BNEF’s tacking
Global oil refining capacity growth could rebound in the second half of this decade after a drop last year. BloombergNEF expects about 4.2 million barrels per day (m b/d) of net capacity increase from 2026 through 2030 based on our asset-level tracking. That is well above projected growth in refined product demand and would reverse several years of subdued additions and elevated closures. If all projects materialize, a capacity overhang could intensify competition and weigh on utilization and margins, particularly for less-competitive assets.
- Africa and Asia Pacific account for roughly 95% of global net capacity growth through 2030. This reflects stronger demand outlooks, import-substitution strategies and investment in export-oriented and petrochemical-integrated assets.
- Near-term capacity growth looks firm, with China and India accounting for 71% of total additions in 2026 and 2027. Most are either operational or under construction. However, confidence declines later in the decade as a larger share of 2028-2030 capacity at earlier stages, which leaves them at a greater risk of delay and cancellations.
- Crude oil and product trade flows will change unevenly, reflecting regional differences in the pace of refining development. China faces a supply overhang, which may lead to further consolidation among smaller, independent assets. India and Africa are adding capacity for greater self-sufficiency. By contrast, markets like Europe and the US may experience further closures.
- The Iran war has disrupted flows of Middle East refining and Persian Gulf feedstocks, tightening product markets and shifting the advantage toward Atlantic Basin refiners. BNEF sees limited impact on the medium-term refining capacity pipeline so far. The conflict strengthens the case for resilience investment in storage, pipelines and logistics.
- BNEF tracks upcoming refinery projects through 2030 and beyond on a bottom-up, asset-level basis using proprietary analysis and Bloomberg data.
