By Adithya Bhashyam, Hydrogen, BloombergNEF
Clean ammonia supply could grow 22- to 30-fold this decade, reaching up to 32 million metric tons of capacity in 2030, according to new BloombergNEF analysis. More than 70% of this supply is in construction or advanced planning and thus likely to be built. The rest is still at risk of cancellation or delay if sufficient demand does not emerge. Clean ammonia could make up 13% of global ammonia supply by 2030.
- The largest producers: North America, China and the Middle East account for 79% of clean ammonia production by 2030 in BNEF’s high scenario. The US is likely to lead clean ammonia production, accounting for a third of global supply.
- Blue versus green: Clean ammonia from natural gas (blue) is set to lead near-term supply as more projects are close to an investment decision compared to green ammonia. However, global policy support is stronger for green, which could overtake blue from 2030.
- Demand: Quotas, tenders and import subsidies in place today are enough to incentivize over 14 million tons of clean supply by 2030. Another 18 million tons of supply are built in BNEF’s forecast due to supply-side incentives such as US tax credits, rising Chinese demand and voluntary offtake.
- Trade: Some 70% of the supply in this outlook is export-oriented. If built, this would double the traded market for ammonia. However, most producers are yet to sign binding offtake agreements, therefore 11 million tons of clean ammonia trade is more likely with current incentives.
BNEF clients can access the full report here.