- Colder-than-normal weather forecast for Dec. 20 to Dec. 26
- LDZ gas demand to be 6% above normal over Dec. 13 to Dec. 26
BloombergNEF expects Local Distribution Zone (LDZ) gas demand in its ‘Europe perimeter’ (Northwest Europe, Italy and Austria) to be 6% higher than seasonal normal levels from Dec. 13 to Dec. 26, 2021, based on 14-day weather forecasts. This will likely push spot gas prices up further amid growing uncertainty around Russian gas flows. Seasonal normal gas demand assumes 10-year average weather.
All of the projected increase in gas demand above seasonal normal is likely to occur in the week of Dec. 20 as temperatures fall. The number of ‘heating degree days’ (HDDs) — the number of degrees the average daily temperature is below 18 degrees Celsius — is 8% higher over that week than 10-year normal levels, according to weather forecasts based on the Global Forecast System model. The number of HDDs is 19% below seasonal normal for the week of Dec. 13.
BNEF’s LDZ demand forecasts for gas year 2021 are based on the latest weather forecasts for the next 14 days, followed by 10-year normal weather assumptions for the remainder of the season.
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