Cumulative passenger EV sales are set to hit 4 million this week. This includes battery electric passenger vehicles and plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles. If we include e-buses, the 4 million milestone was reached at the beginning of July. The time needed to reach each consecutive million EVs sold has shrunk from 17 months for the second million to 6 months for the fourth million.
- At the end of June 2018 there were more than 3.5 million passenger EVs sold globally and about 421,000 e-buses, bringing the total cumulative EVs sold to 3.97 million. China played a major role in reaching this milestone, and is responsible for around 37% of passenger EVs sold around the world since 2011 and for about 99% of the e-buses.
- Setting e-buses aside, we expect cumulative passenger EV sales to reach 4 million units before the start of September 2018. This could be slightly later if sales of the Tesla Model 3 were to slow down. For more details, please see 3Q 2018 Global Electrified Transport Market Outlook (web | terminal).
- There are several new EV models that we expect to come to the market before the end of 2018, which should help increase sales numbers globally. We also expect the Tesla Model 3 to arrive in Europe in mid-2019, which will likely boost EV sales in the region further. China’s so-called NEV quota kicks in in 2019 and will also push sales forward.
- The next million EVs will take just over 6 months. We expect the five-millionth EV to be sold in March 2019.
- Unsurprisingly, around 42% of those upcoming EV sales will be in China, with Europe contributing 26% and North America 25%. However, if Tesla Model 3 sales continue to accelerate, North America could catch up with Europe quite quickly, with both regions having roughly 1.3 million EVs sold by then.
- The time needed to reach each consecutive million EVs sold is shrinking. The first million, which was reached in 4Q 2015, took around 60 months to achieve. North America and Europe were the largest contributors to that first million, contributing 39% and 33%, respectively. China supplied only 15% of the first million EVs on the road.
- With changes to the support offered to EVs in China, sales have increased dramatically. It took 17 months to get to 2 million EVs sold globally, and 10 months to get to 3 million. By 1Q 2018 – when the three-millionth EV was sold – around 35% of cumulative EV sales globally were in China.
- We estimate it will take just over 6 months to hit 5 million EVs sold. The acceleration aligns with the major markets – China, Europe and North America – approaching or exceeding EVs accounting for a 2% share in new car sales. In 2Q 2018, the share of EVs in new car sales was at 4%, 2.3% and 1.6% in China, Europe and North America, respectively.