Covid-19 has put the world on lockdown and markets on hold. The transport sector has been affected in multiple ways with vehicle sales falling, public transit use declining, and factory shut-downs disrupting automakers’ supply chains. There is a high degree of uncertainty around Covid-19 and how the pandemic will evolve in the months to come. This report uses three scenarios to analyze the possible impact of Covid-19 on sales of passenger electric vehicles.
- Scenario 1 is by far the most optimistic. Under this scenario global EV sales actually increase in 2020 by about 3%. In this scenario the market recovers quickly driven by strong policy response and growing demand for new EV models. Covid-19 has a very limited impact on EV sales beyond 2020, and EV sales reach 6.1 million in 2023.
- In scenario 2, global 2020 EV sales fall 18% compared to 2019. This scenario assumes a somewhat ‘v-shaped’ recovery, with EV sales bouncing back to 2.6m by 2021 and 4.0m by 2022. Scenario 2 forms our current base case view.
- In scenario 3, prolonged Covid-19 outbreaks spread into 2022 and GDP growth and employment are slow to recover. EV sales continue to fall into 2021 as automakers push back vehicle launches. The market starts growing again in 2022 and hits 3.3 million in 2023.
- Strong policy support, stimulus measures, ambitious fleet electrification targets and local automakers’ commitment, drive Europe, China and South Korea through the worst in all three scenarios. In the U.S. however, a lack of federal support on the above measures means EV sales are hit harder.