Electrified Transport Market Outlook 4Q 2023: Growth Ahead

By Aleksandra O’Donovan, Head of Electric Vehicles, BloombergNEF

With 3.7 million units sold globally in 3Q 2023, electric vehicles made up 18% of total passenger vehicle sales in the world. BloombergNEF expects global EV sales to reach 14 million in 2023 and 16.7 million in 2024. The 2024 forecast marks a slowdown in annual growth rates caused by the regulatory schedule in Europe, market saturation in China, US consumers facing high interest rates, slow embrace of EVs by the Big Three automakers in the US and Tesla failing to refresh its model lineup.

By the numbers

  • The passenger EV market in China grew 27% year-on-year in 3Q 2023, exceeding 2.2 million EVs sold. EV sales in the country are set to total 8.1 million in 2023. Still, a slowdown is approaching in 2024, with BNEF expecting EV sales in China to be just 18% higher than in 2023 – at 9.7 million EVs sold – caused by a weaker regulatory push, market saturation and a tougher economic situation in the country.
  • EV sales in Europe in 3Q 2023 grew 31%, to just under 800,000 units. Europe is still on track to meet BNEF’s forecast of 3.3 million units sold in 2023, but weaker pressure from fuel-economy targets, and subsidy changes in markets like France and Germany will keep the growth in the region muted in 2024, with sales expected to reach 3.6 million.
  • EV sales in North America rose 54% in 3Q 2023. BNEF now expects North America passenger EV sales to total 1.6 million in 2023, with 1.4 million of those located in the US – up 47% compared to 2022. In 2024, we expect the market to be up 32%, to a total of 1.9 million units in the US and 230,000 in Canada. The US result will be supported by the EV tax credit being available at the point of sale from 2024. Yet, for the total to be reached, the Big Three automakers – GM, Ford and Stellantis – need to step up their efforts.

BNEF clients can access the full report here.

About BloombergNEF

BloombergNEF (BNEF) is a strategic research provider covering global commodity markets and the disruptive technologies driving the transition to a low-carbon economy. Our expert coverage assesses pathways for the power, transport, industry, buildings and agriculture sectors to adapt to the energy transition. We help commodity trading, corporate strategy, finance and policy professionals navigate change and generate opportunities.
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