Europe’s Green Hydrogen Rules Raise Costs for Industry

The European Union (EU) has made clean hydrogen a pillar of both its net-zero target for 2050 and its near-term efforts to get off Russian gas. To enable the scale-up of the industry, the EU released its definition of hydrogen that will qualify as green and the budget for its long-awaited carbon contracts-for-difference scheme. The EU’s stringent rules will ensure any hydrogen produced is low carbon, but raises the cost of procurement for industrial end-users.

  • Europe has taken a lifecycle approach to measuring emissions from hydrogen (H2). The EU has set an emissions threshold for hydrogen of 3.38 kilograms (kg) CO2-equivalent per kg-H2. This is more lenient than some other regions but covers a wider emissions scope: everything from the energy inputs to make H2 through to consumption.
  • The proposed rules favor H2 projects in locations with high shares of renewables. Since Norway’s grid is 90% renewable, a grid-connected electrolyzer could qualify as green and achieve a levelized cost of H2 (LCOH2) of $2.58/kg in 2025 while ensuring stable output. However, in most EU countries, the bloc’s definitions will give preference to co-located wind and solar as the power source. H2 produced from wind and solar in Portugal could cost 4% less than a grid-connected project in Norway but would only have a 50% utilization rate.
  • Strict temporal correlation will drive up the cost of stable H2 production required by industrial end-users. The EU requires hourly matching of H2 production and renewables generation, which limits an electrolyzer’s utilization rate without additional energy storage. An off-grid project in Germany could produce stable H2 using solar, wind and batteries for an LCOH2 of $4.91/kg in 2025 – nearly double that of a grid-connected project in Norway.
  • The carbon contracts-for-difference (CCfD) scheme will bridge the gap. Due to begin in autumn 2022, the CCfD will ensure green H2 is competitive for industrial applications. If 20% of the EU Innovation Fund budget in 2025 went to green steel projects using H2, the scheme would support 55,085 tons of annual renewable H2 production.
  • (Correction on July 26, 2022: Corrects to the European Parliament and the Council of the EU having two months to raise objections on page 2. Corrects name of EU’s plan to ‘REPowerEU’ throughout.).

About BloombergNEF

BloombergNEF (BNEF) is a strategic research provider covering global commodity markets and the disruptive technologies driving the transition to a low-carbon economy. Our expert coverage assesses pathways for the power, transport, industry, buildings and agriculture sectors to adapt to the energy transition. We help commodity trading, corporate strategy, finance and policy professionals navigate change and generate opportunities.
 
Sign up for our free monthly newsletter →

Want to learn how we help our clients put it all together? Contact us