The Transition Metals Outlook 2024 finds that the cost of clean energy technologies could rise without an urgent investment in metals supply to address looming deficits.
NEW YORK – October 3, 2024 – Despite the growth in metals supply over the last decade, BloombergNEF’s (BNEF’s) annual Transition Metals Outlook finds that there are still not enough raw materials to meet growing demand. This supply squeeze could slow the adoption of clean energy technologies. In order to meet the demands of a net-zero emissions world, BNEF estimates $2.1 trillion is needed in new mining investments by 2050.
The report indicates that key energy transition metals such as aluminum, copper and lithium could face deficits in primary supply this decade – some as soon as this year. According to BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario (ETS) – which is driven by the cost competitiveness of technologies and assumes no new policy support – the world could require 3 billion metric tons of metals between 2024 and 2050 to properly build out low-carbon solutions such as electric vehicles, wind turbines and electrolyzers. That number rises to 6 billion tons to reach net zero in 2050.
Kwasi Ampofo, head of metals and mining at BNEF and lead author of the report said, “the prolonged deficit of these metals will lead to higher prices for raw materials, which increases the cost of clean energy technologies. High costs could slow their adoption, and the energy transition at large”.
Recycling could help ease the pressure, with BNEF expecting output from secondary sources to become an integral part of the supply chain for energy transition metals. It has the added benefit of lowering the lifecycle emissions of supply.
According to Allan Ray Restauro, a metals and mining associate at BNEF, “Good government policies are crucial to the industry’s success. For batteries and stationary storage, governments need to establish collection networks, set the requirements for recovery rates, develop the frameworks to trace individual cells and provide the principles on second-life battery management. These actions can build a robust system that oversees the full lifecycle of battery metals.”
The pace of demand growth will vary across regions. In China, for example, consumption outgrew the global average between 2020 and 2023, but the country’s use of energy transition metals is expected to peak in 2030. Southeast Asia is seen becoming the fastest growing market for energy transition metals in the 2030s, according to BNEF’s ETS. Adding value to the region’s large-scale upstream mining industry, to meet this demand, could accelerate its industrialization, while also contributing to lowering global emissions.
Contact
Oktavia Catsaros
BloombergNEF
ocatsaros@bloomberg.net
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