Electric
Vehicle
Outlook
2024

The picture today

EV sales

Electric vehicle markets around the world are not all travelling in the same direction or at the same speed in 2024. Sales of EVs continue to rise globally, but some markets are experiencing a significant slowdown and many automakers have pushed back their EV targets. Progress varies by segment, with electric commercial vehicles set for another blistering year and segments like buses and two- and three-wheelers already reaching very high levels of electrification.

All figures 2023

Passenger EV sales

China still dominates the global EV market, but sales are rising quickly elsewhere too. Electric vehicles are no longer only a wealthy country phenomenon. Developing economies like Thailand, India, Turkey, Brazil and others are all experiencing record sales as more low-cost electric models are targeted at local buyers

Global passenger EV sales by market

Global passenger EV sales by market

Global passenger EV sales by market

Global passenger EV sales by market

Global passenger EV sales by market

Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain

Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain

Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain

Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain

Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain

Source: BloombergNEF, Marklines, Jato.

Note: Includes highway-capable passenger EVs. Excludes low-speed EVs, e-buses and commercial EVs.

Number of public charging stations

More and more charging points are being built, but each country will have its own optimal mix of home, workplace and public chargers.

Cumulative global public charging connectors


Source: Eco-Movement, BloombergNEF, AFDC, EVCIPA, various public and private sources.

Cumulative global public charging connectors


Source: Eco-Movement, BloombergNEF, AFDC, EVCIPA, various public and private sources.

Cumulative global public charging connectors


Source: Eco-Movement, BloombergNEF, AFDC, EVCIPA, various public and private sources.

Cumulative global public charging connectors


Source: Eco-Movement, BloombergNEF, AFDC, EVCIPA, various public and private sources.

Cumulative global public charging connectors


Source: Eco-Movement, BloombergNEF, AFDC, EVCIPA, various public and private sources.

Oil displacement from EVs

EVs of all types are already displacing 1.7 million barrels per day of oil usage, equivalent to about 3% of total road fuel demand.

Oil displacement by vehicle segment

Oil displacement from EVs

EVs of all types are already displacing 1.7 million barrels per day of oil usage, equivalent to about 3% of total road fuel demand.

Oil displacement by vehicle segment

Oil displacement from EVs

EVs of all types are already displacing 1.7 million barrels per day of oil usage, equivalent to about 3% of total road fuel demand.

Oil displacement by vehicle segment

Oil displacement from EVs

EVs of all types are already displacing 1.7 million barrels per day of oil usage, equivalent to about 3% of total road fuel demand.

Oil displacement by vehicle segment

Oil displacement from EVs

EVs of all types are already displacing 1.7 million barrels per day of oil usage, equivalent to about 3% of total road fuel demand.

Oil displacement by vehicle segment

All figures 2023

Lithium-ion battery demand

Battery demand is rising quickly. Growth in battery demand for EVs has slowed slightly in the last year, but demand for stationary storage applications is rising faster than ever. Manufacturing of battery cells and the production of key battery components – such as cathodes, anodes, separators and electrolytes – is concentrated in China.

Annual lithium-ion battery demand by application


Source: BloombergNEF

Lithium-ion battery demand

Battery demand is rising quickly. Growth in battery demand for EVs has slowed slightly in the last year, but demand for stationary storage applications is rising faster than ever. Manufacturing of battery cells and the production of key battery components – such as cathodes, anodes, separators and electrolytes – is concentrated in China.

Annual lithium-ion battery demand by application


Source: BloombergNEF

Lithium-ion battery demand

Battery demand is rising quickly. Growth in battery demand for EVs has slowed slightly in the last year, but demand for stationary storage applications is rising faster than ever. Manufacturing of battery cells and the production of key battery components – such as cathodes, anodes, separators and electrolytes – is concentrated in China.

Annual lithium-ion battery demand by application


Source: BloombergNEF

Lithium-ion battery demand

Battery demand is rising quickly. Growth in battery demand for EVs has slowed slightly in the last year, but demand for stationary storage applications is rising faster than ever. Manufacturing of battery cells and the production of key battery components – such as cathodes, anodes, separators and electrolytes – is concentrated in China.

Annual lithium-ion battery demand by application


Source: BloombergNEF

Lithium-ion battery demand

Battery demand is rising quickly. Growth in battery demand for EVs has slowed slightly in the last year, but demand for stationary storage applications is rising faster than ever. Manufacturing of battery cells and the production of key battery components – such as cathodes, anodes, separators and electrolytes – is concentrated in China.

Annual lithium-ion battery demand by application


Source: BloombergNEF

Reaching net zero by 2050

Reaching 2050 net-zero targets will require swift progress on renewable generation and on adoption of zero-emission vehicles. The report includes a “Net Zero” scenario which investigates what a potential route to carbon neutrality looks like across all segments of road transport by 2050.

This year’s EV Outlook also includes three thematic highlights, each of which explores a different part of the transition in vehicle markets around the world:

The Return of Plug-In Hybrids

Compound annual growth rate for global passenger vehicle sales from 2019 to 2023, by drivetrain (%)


Source: BloombergNEF, MarkLines, JATO Dynamics, auto associations.

China’s Low-Cost Battery Push

Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery cell prices ($/kWh)


Source: BloombergNEF, ICC Battery. Note: 2023 price from BNEF’s Lithium-ion Battery Price Survey. 2024 price from Jan-Apr from ICC Battery.

EV Driving Distances are Higher Than Expected

Difference in annual battery electric vehicle kilometers traveled compared to internal combustion engine vehicles by market (%)


Source: compiled by BloombergNEF from government agencies, academic institutions and auto associations.

Key numbers

722 million

Number of passenger EVs on the road in 2040 in the Economic Transition Scenario

380 million

Gap in the number of electric passenger vehicles on the road between the Economic Transition Scenario and the Net Zero Scenario in 2040

$242 billion

Size of the charging infrastructure market opportunity between today and 2050 in the Economic Transition Scenario

2027

Road transport oil demand peak

2028

Road transport emissions peak

8.3 petawatt hours

Electricity demand from road transport in 2050 in the Net Zero Scenario

BNEF Clients

BNEF clients can access the full report, including the breakdown by segment, technology and region, as well as the underlying Excel data and previous editions.

Read the full report

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024 Cover

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Sending...

Colin McKerracher
Lead author
@colinmckerrache

Aleksandra O’Donovan
Passenger vehicles

Dr. Nikolas Soulopoulos
Commercial vehicles and freight

Andrew Grant
Modeling and shared mobility
@agrant49

Jinghong Lyu
Modeling and shared mobility

Siyi Mi
Two and three wheelers
@siyi_mi

David Doherty
Oil

Ryan Fisher

Ryan Fisher
Charging infrastructure and electricity demand
@RyanAFisher

Corey Cantor

Corey Cantor
Vehicle economics
@CoreyBCantor

Maynie Yang

Maynie Yang
Buses
@MaynieYang

Dr. Kwasi Ampofo
Metals and mining
@KDAmpofo

Yayoi Sekine

Yayoi Sekine
Batteries
@YayoiSekine

Dr. Andy Leach

Dr. Andy Leach
Batteries
@AndyLeachBatt

Evelina Stoikou

Evelina Stoikou
Batteries
@EvelinaStoikou

Jiayan Shi

Jiayan Shi
Batteries

Peng Xu

Peng Xu
Metals and mining

Luxi Hong
Oil

Madeleine Brolly
Charging infrastructure

Siong-Hu Wong
Data management

Komal Kareer

Komal Kareer
India and Southeast Asia

Leonard Quong
Australia

Vinicius Nunes
Brazil

Takehiro Kawahara
Japan

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