The Electric Vehicle Outlook is BloombergNEF’s annual long-term forecast of how electrification, shared mobility and autonomous driving will impact road transport from now out to 2040. It covers light duty passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, buses, and two/three-wheeled vehicles. The report draws on our team of specialists around the world and looks at how these trends will impact the automotive, energy, infrastructure, and battery materials markets over the next 20 years.
China’s share of global EV sales
China accounts for the largest share of global EV sales as it looks to reduce energy imports, clean up urban air quality, build its domestic auto industry, and attract manufacturing investment.
Share of total kilometers in shared mobility applications
Shared mobility usage drops in 2020 as COVID-19 pushes people into private cars, but by 2040 it represents 16% of all kilometers travelled by road. Autonomous vehicles progress steadily but do not materially impact global travel patterns until the latter half of the 2030s.
Batteries keep getting better. Average battery energy density is rising at 4-5% per year and new chemistries are hitting the market. Maximum EV charging speeds are also rising.
Policymakers are pushing the auto market towards lower emissions. Fuel economy regulations, quota systems and city policies all play a growing role.
By the mid-2020s EVs reach up-front price parity – without subsidies – with internal combustion vehicles in most segments, but there is wide variation by region.
Automakers and large fleet operators are accelerating their investments in electrification as part of their long-term climate commitments, and to meet near-term policy requirements.
Rising policy pressure
Number of countries that have announced plans to phase out sales of internal combustion vehicles.
Which segments will lead?
Looking beyond passenger cars, several ‘killer apps’ are emerging for electrification. Two-wheeled vehicles (scooters, mopeds, motorcycles) and municipal buses are already going electric quickly and accelerate further in the next ten years. Delivery vans are the next segments to cross the tipping point.
Implications for energy and emissions
Dr. Ali Izadi-Najafabadi
Dr. Nikolas Soulopolous
Commercial vehicles and freight
Dr. James Frith
Alejandro Zamorano-Cadavid, Allen Tom Abraham, Kwasi Ampofo, Nannan Kou, Will Edmonds, Dr. Ian Berryman, Josh Landess, Jinghong Lyu