BNEF’s annual long-term forecast of global electric vehicle (EV) adoption to 2040.
Our global long-term Electric Vehicle Outlook (EVO) forecasts passenger EV adoption out to 2040 and the impact that electrification will have on automotive and power markets, as well as on fossil fuel displacement and demand for key materials. The EVO 2017 report updates our view of future lithium-ion battery prices and how this will affect the economics of different vehicle segments. It also looks at important upcoming EV models, and analyzes the impact of car sharing, ride hailing and autonomous driving.
“The EV revolution is going to hit the car market even harder and faster than BNEF predicted a year ago. EVs are on track to accelerate to 54% of new car sales by 2040. Tumbling battery prices mean that EVs will have lower lifetime costs, and will be cheaper to buy, than internal combustion engine (ICE) cars in most countries by 2025-29.”
Electric vehicles take majority share of new car sales
We estimate that EVs will account for 54% of new car sales by 2040, not 35% as previously forecast.
Tumbling battery prices to drive EV growth
The real take-off for EVs will happen in the second half of the 2020s due to plunging lithium-ion battery prices, which are set to fall by more than 70% by 2030.
Oil displacement ramps up
By 2040, EVs will displace 8 million barrels of transport fuel per day, and add 5% to global electricity consumption.
BNEF clients can access the full EV Outlook report, related charts and datasets, and previous editions. Go to client page.
High-level findings of the Electric Vehicle Outlook 2017 are available in a free executive summary. Complete this form to receive it today: