Electric Vehicle Outlook 2017

BNEF’s annual long-term forecast of global electric vehicle (EV) adoption to 2040.

BNEF’s annual long-term forecast of global electric vehicle (EV) adoption to 2040.


Our global long-term Electric Vehicle Outlook (EVO) forecasts passenger EV adoption out to 2040 and the impact that electrification will have on automotive and power markets, as well as on fossil fuel displacement and demand for key materials. The EVO 2017 report updates our view of future lithium-ion battery prices and how this will affect the economics of different vehicle segments. It also looks at important upcoming EV models, and analyzes the impact of car sharing, ride hailing and autonomous driving.

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“The EV revolution is going to hit the car market even harder and faster than BNEF predicted a year ago. EVs are on track to accelerate to 54% of new car sales by 2040. Tumbling battery prices mean that EVs will have lower lifetime costs, and will be cheaper to buy, than internal combustion engine (ICE) cars in most countries by 2025-29.”



Electric vehicles take majority share of new car sales

We estimate that EVs will account for 54% of new car sales by 2040, not 35% as previously forecast.


Tumbling battery prices to drive EV growth

The real take-off for EVs will happen in the second half of the 2020s due to plunging lithium-ion battery prices, which are set to fall by more than 70% by 2030.


Oil displacement ramps up

By 2040, EVs will displace 8 million barrels of transport fuel per day, and add 5% to global electricity consumption.


BNEF clients can access the full EV Outlook report, related charts and datasets, and previous editions. Go to client page.

High-level findings of the Electric Vehicle Outlook 2017 are available in a free executive summary. Complete this form to receive it today:


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Press mentions

The New York Times

When Will Electric Cars Go Mainstream? It May Be Sooner Than You Think

MIT Technology Review

By 2040, more than half of all new cars could be electric

The New York Times

Editorial: A Brighter Future for Electric Cars and the Planet

The Guardian

Electric car revolution: calculating the cost of green motoring
France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040

Fast Company

The electric vehicle takeover may happen sooner than anticipated
The end is in sight for the internal combustion engine in France

Bloomberg News

The Electric Car Revolution is Accelerating


Smart Money Revs its Engines – and they are Electric

Bloomberg Television

Why electric cars may dominate the auto market by 2040

The Times

Falling battery costs to drive electric car sales

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