The Electric Vehicle Outlook is our annual long-term publication looking at how electrification, shared mobility, autonomous driving and other factors will impact road transport in the coming decades. The report draws on our team of specialists around the world and looks at scenarios for how these trends will impact the automotive, oil, electricity, infrastructure and battery materials markets, as well as CO2 emissions.
The picture today
EV sales
EV sales are surging due to a combination of policy support, improvements in battery technology, more charging infrastructure and new compelling models from automakers. Electrification is also spreading to new segments of road transport, setting the stage for huge changes ahead.
All figures 2022
Passenger EV sales
China still dominates the global EV market, but sales are rising quickly elsewhere too. Battery electrics are pulling ahead of plug-in hybrids and the gap is set to widen further in the years ahead.
Global passenger EV sales by market
Global passenger EV sales by market
Global passenger EV sales by market
Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain
Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain
Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain
Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain
Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain
Source: BloombergNEF, Marklines, Jato.
Number of public charging stations
More and more charging points are being built, but each country will have its own optimal mix of home, workplace and public chargers.
Cumulative global public charging connectors
Source: BloombergNEF, China Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Promotion Alliance (EVCIPA), US Alternative Fuels Data Center, Eco-Movement, Tesla, Republic of Korea Ministry of Environment, a range of public and private sources.
Cumulative global public charging connectors
Source: BloombergNEF, China Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Promotion Alliance (EVCIPA), US Alternative Fuels Data Center, Eco-Movement, Tesla, Republic of Korea Ministry of Environment, a range of public and private sources.
Cumulative global public charging connectors
Source: BloombergNEF, China Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Promotion Alliance (EVCIPA), US Alternative Fuels Data Center, Eco-Movement, Tesla, Republic of Korea Ministry of Environment, a range of public and private sources.
Cumulative global public charging connectors
Source: BloombergNEF, China Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Promotion Alliance (EVCIPA), US Alternative Fuels Data Center, Eco-Movement, Tesla, Republic of Korea Ministry of Environment, a range of public and private sources.
Cumulative global public charging connectors
Source: BloombergNEF, China Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Promotion Alliance (EVCIPA), US Alternative Fuels Data Center, Eco-Movement, Tesla, Republic of Korea Ministry of Environment, a range of public and private sources.
Oil displacement from EVs
EVs of all types are already displacing 1.5 million barrels per day of oil usage, equivalent to about 3% of total road fuel demand.
Oil displacement by vehicle segment
Oil displacement from EVs
EVs of all types are already displacing 1.5 million barrels per day of oil usage, equivalent to about 3% of total road fuel demand.
Oil displacement by vehicle segment
Oil displacement from EVs
EVs of all types are already displacing 1.5 million barrels per day of oil usage, equivalent to about 3% of total road fuel demand.
Oil displacement by vehicle segment
Oil displacement from EVs
EVs of all types are already displacing 1.5 million barrels per day of oil usage, equivalent to about 3% of total road fuel demand.
Oil displacement by vehicle segment
Oil displacement from EVs
EVs of all types are already displacing 1.5 million barrels per day of oil usage, equivalent to about 3% of total road fuel demand.
Oil displacement by vehicle segment
Lithium-ion battery demand
Battery demand is rising sharply, putting pressure on the supply chain for materials like lithium, cobalt and nickel.
Annual lithium-ion battery demand by application
Source: BloombergNEF
Lithium-ion battery demand
Battery demand is rising sharply, putting pressure on the supply chain for materials like lithium, cobalt and nickel.
Annual lithium-ion battery demand by application
Source: BloombergNEF
Lithium-ion battery demand
Battery demand is rising sharply, putting pressure on the supply chain for materials like lithium, cobalt and nickel.
Annual lithium-ion battery demand by application
Source: BloombergNEF
Lithium-ion battery demand
Battery demand is rising sharply, putting pressure on the supply chain for materials like lithium, cobalt and nickel.
Annual lithium-ion battery demand by application
Source: BloombergNEF
Lithium-ion battery demand
Battery demand is rising sharply, putting pressure on the supply chain for materials like lithium, cobalt and nickel.
Annual lithium-ion battery demand by application
Source: BloombergNEF
Reaching net zero by 2050
This year’s report includes a “Net Zero” scenario which investigates what a potential route to carbon neutrality looks across all segments of road transport by 2050. It also includes five thematic highlights on important emerging topic areas:
- Will EV ranges keep rising?
- EV price parity under different battery price scenarios
- The impact of autonomous vehicles
- Emerging battery technologies
- High-powered charging for trucking fleets
Key numbers
730 Million
Number of passenger EVs on the road in 2040 in the Economic Transition Scenario
335 Million
Gap in the number of battery electric passenger vehicles on the road between the Economic Transition Scenario and the Net Zero Scenario in 2040
$1.9 Trillion
Size of the charging infrastructure market opportunity between today and 2050 in the Economic Transition Scenario
2027
Road transport oil demand peak
2029
Road transport emissions peak
22x
Scale up in annual lithium demand between 2022 and 2050 in the Net Zero Scenario
Executive summary
Enter your details below to download the executive summary and find out more on the implications of EV adoption for energy markets, raw materials, emissions, charging infrastructure and more.
Report authors
Colin McKerracher
Lead author
@colinmckerrache
Aleksandra O’Donovan
Passenger vehicles
Dr. Nikolas Soulopoulos
Commercial vehicles and freight
Andrew Grant
Modeling and shared mobility
@agrant49
Jinghong Lyu
Modeling and shared mobility
Siyi Mi
Two and three wheelers
@siyi_mi
David Doherty
Oil
Ryan Fisher
Charging infrastructure and electricity demand
@RyanAFisher
Corey Cantor
Vehicle economics
@CoreyBCantor
Maynie Yang
Buses
@MaynieYang
Dr. Kwasi Ampofo
Metals and mining
@KDAmpofo
Yayoi Sekine
Batteries
@YayoiSekine
Dr. Andy Leach
Batteries
@AndyLeachBatt
Evelina Stoikou
Batteries
@EvelinaStoikou
Jiayan Shi
Batteries
Peng Xu
Metals and mining
Laura Malo Yague
Passenger vehicles
Alex Haring
Passenger vehicles
Philip Geurts
Oil
Charlotte Adriaenssens
Charging infrastructure
Allen Tom Abraham
India, Southeast Asia and Australia
@AllenTomAbraham
Komal Kareer
India