INSIGHTS

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024

The Electric Vehicle Outlook is our annual long-term publication looking at how electrification, shared mobility, autonomous driving and other factors will impact road transport in the coming decades. The report draws on our team of specialists around the world and looks at scenarios for how these trends will impact the automotive, oil, electricity, infrastructure and battery materials markets, as well as CO2 emissions.

INSIGHTS

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024

The Electric Vehicle Outlook is our annual long-term publication looking at how electrification, shared mobility, autonomous driving and other factors will impact road transport in the coming decades. The report draws on our team of specialists around the world and looks at scenarios for how these trends will impact the automotive, oil, electricity, infrastructure and battery materials markets, as well as CO2 emissions.

Vans and trucks

4% EV share of sales; EV fleet size: 1,518,916.

Buses

26% EV share of sales; EV fleet size: 720,884.

Passenger cars

8% EV share of sales; EV fleet size: 40,863,996.

2 and 3 wheelers

47% EV share of sales; EV fleet size: 301,995,237.

Vans and trucks

4% EV share of sales; EV fleet size: 1,518,916.

Buses

26% EV share of sales; EV fleet size: 720,884.

Passenger cars

8% EV share of sales; EV fleet size: 40,863,996.

2 and 3 wheelers

47% EV share of sales; EV fleet size: 301,995,237.

Passenger EV sales

China still dominates the global EV market, but sales are rising quickly elsewhere too. Electric vehicles are no longer only a wealthy country phenomenon. Developing economies like Thailand, India, Turkey, Brazil and others are all experiencing record sales as more low-cost electric models are targeted at local buyers.

Global passenger EV sales by market

Bar chart of global passenger EV sales by market from 2017 to 2023, with China and Europe leading.
Bar chart of global passenger EV sales by market from 2017 to 2023, with China and Europe leading.
Bar chart of global passenger EV sales by market from 2017 to 2023, with China and Europe leading.

Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain

Bar chart of global EV sales by drivetrain from 2017 to 2023, showing growth in battery electric and plug-in hybrids.
Bar chart of global EV sales by drivetrain from 2017 to 2023, showing growth in battery electric and plug-in hybrids.

Source: BloombergNEF, Marklines, Jato.
Note: Includes highway-capable passenger EVs. Excludes low-speed EVs, e-buses and commercial EVs.

Number of public charging stations

More and more charging points are being built, but each country will have its own optimal mix of home, workplace and public chargers.

Cumulative global public charging connectors

Bar chart of global public EV charging connectors from 2010 to 2023, led by China.
ar chart showing rapid global growth of EV connectors from 2010 to 2023, led by China.

Source: Eco-Movement, BloombergNEF, AFDC, EVCIPA, various public and private sources.

Oil displacement from EVs

EVs of all types are already displacing 1.7 million barrels per day of oil usage, equivalent to about 3% of total road fuel demand.

Oil displacement by vehicle segment

Vans and trucks

Vans and trucks consume 57,790 barrels of oil per day.

Buses

Buses consume 215,517 barrels of oil per day.

Passenger cars

assenger cars consume 370,574 barrels of oil per day.

2 and 3 wheelers

2- and 3-wheelers consume 1,069,487 barrels of oil per day.

Vans and trucks

Buses

Passenger cars

2 and 3 wheelers

Lithium-ion battery demand

Battery demand is rising quickly. Growth in battery demand for EVs has slowed slightly in the last year, but demand for stationary storage applications is rising faster than ever. Manufacturing of battery cells and the production of key battery components – such as cathodes, anodes, separators and electrolytes – is concentrated in China.

Annual lithium-ion battery demand by application

Bar chart of annual lithium-ion battery demand by application from 2015 to 2023, led by passenger EVs.

Reaching net zero by 2050

Reaching 2050 net-zero targets will require swift progress on renewable generation and on adoption of zero-emission vehicles. The report includes a “Net Zero” scenario which investigates what a potential route to carbon neutrality looks like across all segments of road transport by 2050.

This year’s EV Outlook also includes three thematic highlights, each of which explores a different part of the transition in vehicle markets around the world:

THEME

The Return of Plug-In Hybrids

Compound annual growth rate for global passenger vehicle sales from 2019 to 2023, by drivetrain (%)

THEME

China’s Low-Cost Battery Push

Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery cell prices ($/kWh)

THEME

EV Driving Distances are Higher Than Expected

Difference in annual battery electric vehicle kilometers traveled compared to internal combustion engine vehicles by market (%)

Source: BloombergNEF, MarkLines, JATO Dynamics, auto associations.

Source: BloombergNEF, ICC Battery. Note: 2023 price from BNEF’s Lithium-ion Battery Price Survey. 2024 price from Jan-Apr from ICC Battery

Source: compiled by BloombergNEF from government agencies, academic institutions and auto associations.

THEME

The Return of Plug-In Hybrids

Compound annual growth rate for global passenger vehicle sales from 2019 to 2023, by drivetrain (%)

Source: BloombergNEF, MarkLines, JATO Dynamics, auto associations.

THEME

China’s Low-Cost Battery Push

Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery cell prices ($/kWh)

Source: BloombergNEF, ICC Battery. Note: 2023 price from BNEF’s Lithium-ion Battery Price Survey. 2024 price from Jan-Apr from ICC Battery

THEME

EV Driving Distances are Higher Than Expected

Difference in annual battery electric vehicle kilometers traveled compared to internal combustion engine vehicles by market (%)

Source: compiled by BloombergNEF from government agencies, academic institutions and auto associations.

Key numbers


72
M

Number of passenger EVs on the road in 2040 in the Economic Transition Scenario


380
M

Gap in the number of electric passenger vehicles on the road between the Economic Transition Scenario and the Net Zero Scenario in 2040


$
242
B

Size of the charging infrastructure market opportunity between today and 2050 in the Economic Transition Scenario


2027

Road transport oil demand peak


2028

Road transport emissions peak


8.3PW·h

Electricity demand from road transport in 2050 in the Net Zero Scenario