INSIGHTS

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025

The Electric Vehicle Outlook is BNEF’s annual flagship report looking at how electrification and other changes will impact road transport in the years ahead. The report draws on our team of specialists around the world and covers all major vehicle markets. It includes analysis on vehicle sales, oil markets, electricity demand, charging infrastructure, batteries, metals and CO2 emissions.

Download Executive Summary

INSIGHTS

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025

The Electric Vehicle Outlook is BNEF’s annual flagship report looking at how electrification and other changes will impact road transport in the years ahead. The report draws on our team of specialists around the world and covers all major vehicle markets. It includes analysis on vehicle sales, oil markets, electricity demand, charging infrastructure, batteries, metals and CO2 emissions. 

Download Executive Summary

The picture in 2025

Global sales of electric vehicles continue to rise and are set to represent one in four cars sold this year. But some markets are experiencing a significant slowdown, and many automakers have pushed back their EV targets. Electrification is spreading quickly in other areas of road transport, with buses and two- and three-wheelers already reaching very high levels of adoption.

Vans and trucks

Passenger cars

Buses

2 and 3 wheelers

Vans and trucks

Passenger cars

Buses

2 and 3 wheelers

Note: All figures are BloombergNEF’s outlook for 2025. Percentages are the share of new sales in each segment. Includes battery electrics and plug-in hybrids.

China dominates the global EV market, with over half of vehicles sold there now electric. Sales in the US are slowing and face uncertainty due to policy changes, while some emerging economies are experiencing record sales as more low-cost electric models arrive targeting local buyers. 

Global passenger EV sales by market

Source: BloombergNEF, MarkLines, Jato Dynamics
Note: Includes battery electric and plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles. 2025 is BNEF’s forecast for the year.

Source: BloombergNEF, MarkLines, Jato Dynamics
Note: Includes battery electric and plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles. 2025 is BNEF’s forecast for the year.

Source: BloombergNEF, MarkLines, Jato Dynamics
Note: Includes battery electric and plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles. 2025 is BNEF’s forecast for the year.

Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain

Source: BloombergNEF, MarkLines, Jato.
Note: Includes highway-capable passenger EVs. Range-extender electric vehicles are a variant of plug-in hybrids with an on-board power generator that charges the battery. 2025 is BNEF’s forecast for the year.

Source: BloombergNEF, MarkLines, Jato.
Note: Includes highway-capable passenger EVs. Range-extender electric vehicles are a variant of plug-in hybrids with an on-board power generator that charges the battery. 2025 is BNEF’s forecast for the year.

Source: BloombergNEF, MarkLines, Jato.
Note: Includes highway-capable passenger EVs. Range-extender electric vehicles are a variant of plug-in hybrids with an on-board power generator that charges the battery. 2025 is BNEF’s forecast for the year.

EV charging infrastructure

More and more charging points are being built, but prices are rising in many markets. Each country will have its own optimal mix of home, workplace and public chargers.

Cumulative global public charging connectors

Source: BloombergNEF, Eco-Movement, China Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, various public and private sources.

Source: BloombergNEF, Eco-Movement, China Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, various public and private sources.

Source: BloombergNEF, Eco-Movement, China Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, various public and private sources.

Lithium-ion battery demand

Despite rising demand, there is significant overcapacity among battery manufacturers, which has helped drive prices down. Battery demand for stationary storage is also growing rapidly as vendors look for new markets. 

Annual lithium-ion battery demand by application

Source: BloombergNEF
Note: Excludes consumer electronics

Source: BloombergNEF
Note: Excludes consumer electronics

Source: BloombergNEF
Note: Excludes consumer electronics

The race for the battery supply chain

Manufacturing of battery cells and the production of key battery components – such as cathodes, anodes, separators and electrolytes – is heavily concentrated in China. Other countries are also building capacity quickly as they look to onshore more of the supply chain. 

Lithium-cell and component manufacturing capacity by region

Source: BloombergNEF
Note: 2025 includes facilities commissioned up to April 16, 2025. Data uses BNEF’s risk-adjustment methodology to account for the likelihood that a project will come online.

The race for the battery supply chain

Manufacturing of battery cells and the production of key battery components – such as cathodes, anodes, separators and electrolytes – is heavily concentrated in China. Other countries are also building capacity quickly as they look to onshore more of the supply chain. 

Lithium-cell and component manufacturing capacity by region

Source: BloombergNEF
Note: 2025 includes facilities commissioned up to April 16, 2025. Data uses BNEF’s risk-adjustment methodology to account for the likelihood that a project will come online.

The US EV market falters

Policy support for EVs in the US has changed significantly over the last year. These include elements of the Inflation Reduction Act that are being removed or threatened, as well as the potential removal of California’s ability to set its own emissions standards. BNEF’s outlook for US EV adoption has decreased as a result. 

Number of electric vehicles on the road in the US in 2030 from EVO 2024 and the updated EVO 2025

Source: BloombergNEF
Note: includes BEVs and PHEVs.

The US EV market falters

Policy support for EVs in the US has changed significantly over the last year. These include elements of the Inflation Reduction Act that are being removed or threatened, as well as the potential removal of California’s ability to set its own emissions standards. BNEF’s outlook for US EV adoption has decreased as a result. 

Number of electric vehicles on the road in the US in 2030 from EVO 2024 and the updated EVO 2025

Source: BloombergNEF
Note: Includes BEVs and PHEVs.

Varied progress in Europe

EV adoption in Europe slowed in 2024 as automakers delayed sales and model launch plans to coincide with tightening vehicle CO2 regulations in 2025. EV sales across the region are now rising again, but progress varies across the bloc and some countries are falling further behind. 

Electric vehicle share of sales in selected vehicle markets 

Source: BloombergNEF
Note: Includes BEVs and PHEVs.

Varied progress in Europe

Emerging economies are some of the fastest-growing EV markets. Countries like Vietnam, Thailand and Brazil have all seen EV sales rise dramatically over the last two years. Many of them now have higher adoption rates than wealthier countries.

Electric vehicle share of sales in selected vehicle markets 

Source: BloombergNEF, MarkLines, Jato Dynamics

Emerging economies take off

Emerging economies are some of the fastest-growing EV markets. Countries like Vietnam, Thailand and Brazil have all seen EV sales rise dramatically over the last two years. Many of them now have higher adoption rates than wealthier countries.

EV sales in selected markets

Source: BloombergNEF, MarkLines, Jato Dynamics

Emerging economies take off

Emerging economies are some of the fastest-growing EV markets. Countries like Vietnam, Thailand and Brazil have all seen EV sales rise dramatically over the last two years. Many of them now have higher adoption rates than wealthier countries.

EV sales in selected markets

Source: BloombergNEF, auto associations

New features in this year’s outlook

  • More countries covered: this year’s outlook includes 14 major auto markets as well as a detailed breakdown for additional EU countries
  • Additional analysis on the growing role of range-extended EVs (eREVs)
  • A new lithium-ion battery cathode, anode and electrolyte forecast for different vehicle segments and markets
  • New analysis on battery manufacturing overcapacity
  • Additional coverage on the impacts of tariffs and trade 

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Thematic highlights

This year’s EV Outlook also includes three thematic highlights, each of which explores a different part of the transition in vehicle markets around the world: 

THEME

The commercialization of solid-state batteries

Current and planned manufacturing capacity for solid-state battery cells

THEME

Rising electric vehicle charging costs

Share of EV fleet for which residential electricity is at least 50% cheaper than gasoline

THEME

The alternative path for Brazil’s ethanol

Share of Brazilian domestic ethanol demand displaced by EVs

Source: BloombergNEF
Note: Data as of May 19, 2025. Manufacturing capacity is non-derisked nameplate manufacturing capacity.

Source: BloombergNEF
Note: See full report for assumptions.

Source: BloombergNEF

THEME

The commercialization of solid-state batteries

Current and planned manufacturing capacity for solid-state battery cells

Source: BloombergNEF

THEME

Rising electric vehicle charging costs

Share of EV fleet for which residential electricity is at least 50% cheaper than gasoline

Source: BloombergNEF
Note: See full report for assumptions.

THEME

The alternative path for Brazil’s ethanol

Share of Brazilian domestic ethanol demand displaced by EVs

Source: BloombergNEF
Note: Data as of May 19, 2025. Manufacturing capacity is non-derisked nameplate manufacturing capacity.

Key numbers

25
%

Expected growth in global passenger EV sales in 2025

3
.8TWh

Risk-adjusted lithium-ion cell manufacturing capacity by the end of 2025 – double expected demand

2029

Road transport oil demand peak

39
million

Passenger EV sales in 2030, up from 17.6 million in 2024

2
.4X

EV electricity demand growth from 2025 to 2030

700
GWh

Total announced, under construction, and fully commissioned solid state battery manufacturing capacity in China

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BNEF clients can access the full report, including the breakdown by segment, technology and region, as well as the underlying Excel data and previous editions.

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Authors

Colin McKerracher

Lead author

Aleksandra O’Donovan

Passenger vehicles

Dr. Nikolas Soulopoulos

Commercial vehicles and freight

Andrew Grant

Lead modeler

Jinghong Lyu

Modeling and shared mobility

Siyi Mi

Two and three wheelers, China

Komal Kareer

Two and three wheelers, India and Southeast Asia

Maynie Yang

Commercial vehicles and buses

David Doherty

Oil

Claudio Lubis

Oil

Huiling Zou

Vehicle economics

Shananthan Kalaichelvan

Electric vehicles

Ryan Fisher

Charging infrastructure and electricity demand

Madeleine Brolly

Charging infrastructure

Ash Wang

Charging infrastructure

Siong-Hu Wong

Modeling and autonomous vehicles

Evelina Stoikou

Batteries

Dr. Andy Leach

Batteries

Jiayan Shi

Batteries

Yayoi Sekine

Batteries

Dr. Kwasi Ampofo

Metals and mining

Peng Xu

Metals and mining

Vinicius Nunes

Brazil

Jade Patterson

Renewable fuels