New
Energy
Outlook
2024

New
Energy
Outlook
2024

The New Energy Outlook presents BloombergNEF’s long-term energy and climate scenarios for the transition to a low-carbon economy. Anchored in real-world sector and country transitions, it provides an independent set of credible scenarios covering electricity, industry, buildings and transport, and the key drivers shaping these sectors until 2050.

The 2024 edition presents two detailed global and country-level energy and climate scenarios to support corporations, financial institutions and policymakers navigating the energy transition. Enter your details below to download the executive summary as well as an extract of the underlying data.

BloombergNEF will publish updated sector and country reports based on the New Energy Outlook.

NEO 2024 Executive Summary

A Time for Action

The window to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 is rapidly closing but there is still time for the world to get on track – if decisive action is taken now. Failure to do so risks putting even a 1.75C global warming target out of reach. Progress has been made. The energy transition has accelerated in recent years with the pace of clean technology deployment and capital investment surging to record levels. And while emissions remain stubbornly high despite that momentum, with an even faster ramp-up of everything from renewables to green fuels, BNEF sees carbon neutrality by mid-century as a tough but achievable stretch.

The halfway point has now been reached in a make-or-break decade. Aligning with a net-zero trajectory will require an immediate peaking of emissions and fossil-fuel use across the global energy system – spanning the power, transport, industrial and buildings sectors.

Energy-related emissions and net-zero carbon budget, Economic Transition Scenario and Net Zero Scenario

Source: BloombergNEF

A System Built Around Renewables

Cleaner power generation can drive the bulk of the aggressive emissions cuts needed this side of 2030, enabling more time to tackle ‘hard-to-abate’ areas like steelmaking and aviation, where cost-competitive low-carbon solutions have yet to scale. A net-zero pathway hinges on renewables capacity tripling between now and the end of the decade.

Regardless of whether the world heads for net zero or it ultimately proves a stretch too far, the era of fossil fuels’ dominance is coming to an end. Even if the transition is propelled by economics alone, with no further policy drivers to help, renewables could still cross a 50% share of electricity generation at the end of this decade.

Electricity generation by technology/fuel

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Includes electricity generation for hydrogen production under the Net Zero scenario. ‘Other renewables’ includes all other non-combustible renewable energy, including hydro, bioenergy, geothermal and solar thermal. CCS is carbon capture and storage.

A Shift in Investment and Spending Priorities

None of this will be possible without accelerated spending. On the energy supply side, for every dollar that goes to fossil fuels, an average of $3 needs to be invested in low-carbon energy over the remainder of the decade – up from parity today. A fully decarbonized global energy system by 2050 could come with a $215 trillion price tag – not an insignificant amount, but only 19% more than in an economics-driven transition, where the Paris Agreement goals are missed and global warming reaches 2.6C.

Global energy investment and spending across 2024-2050, Economic Transition Scenario and Net Zero Scenario

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: ICE is internal combustion engine, EV is electric vehicles. The numbers above the bars indicate cumulative investment and spending figures from 2024 to 2050.

David Hostert
Head of Economics & Modeling, Lead author

Matthias Kimmel
Head of Energy Economics

Dr. Ian Berryman
Lead Energy Systems Modeler

Felicia Aminoff
Grids

Dr. Kwasi Ampofo
Metals

Dr. Julia Attwood
Industry

Hugh Bromley
Land Use

Jenny Chase
Renewables

Albert Cheung
Head of Research

Takehiro Kawahara
Aviation

Claudio Lubis
Investment

Kostas Pegios
Modelling

Rodrigo Quintero
Energy Economics

Daisy Robinson
Renewable Fuels

Seohee Song
Energy Economics

Dr. Nikolas Soulopoulos
Commercial Transport

Martin Tengler
Hydrogen

Amar Vasdev
Energy Economics

With support from

Meredith Annex
Clean Power

Tushna Antia
Australia

Adithya Bhashyam
Hydrogen

Yiran Bian
China

Natalia Castilhos Rypl
Latin America

Oktavia Catsaros
Communications

Emma Champion
Europe

Robert Clarke
Product

Victoria Cuming
Policy

David Doherty
Aviation & Road Fuels

James Ellis
Latin America

Ryan Fisher
Electric Vehicle Charging

Chris Gadomski
Nuclear

Philip Geurts
Oil

Andrew Grant
Electric Vehicles

Lara Hayim
Solar

Yuchen Huo
Metals

Dr. Ali Izadi-Najafabadi
Asia-Pacific

Shantanu Jaiswal
India

David Kang
Japan

Nilushi Karunaratne
Editorial

Isshu Kikuma
Japan

Nannan Kou
China

Hongyan Li
Editorial

Sofia Maia
Energy Transitions

Fauziah Marzuki
Gas

Colin McKerracher
Transport

Oliver Metcalfe
Wind

Tara Narayanan
US

Vinicius Nunes
Latin America

Rose Oates
Renewable Fuels

Sofia Perelli-Rocco
Heat Pumps

Hang Phan
Vietnam

Isabella Philip
Marketing

Leonard Quong
Australia

Abhishek Rohatgi
Gas

Dr. Tom Rowlands-Rees
Americas

Sanjeet Sanghera
Grids

Kesavarthiniy Savarimuthu
Europe

Kamala Schelling
Editorial

Yayoi Sekine
Batteries

Ashish Sethia
Commodities

Siddarth Shetty
India

Sahaj Sood
Asia-Pacific

Analeigh Suh
South Korea

Sisi Tang
Petrochemicals

Allen Tom Abraham
Industry

Andrew Turner
Land Use

Mohith Velamala
Shipping

Ben Vickers
Chief Editor

Jo Willard
Design

Mark Williams
Editorial

Iain Wilson
Editorial

William Young
Investment

Tianyi Zhao
China

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© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2024. This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg Finance L.P. in connection with BloombergNEF. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of BloombergNEF.

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