Focused on the electricity system, our New Energy Outlook (NEO) combines the expertise of over 65 market and technology specialists in 12 countries to provide a unique view of how the market will evolve.
What’s new in NEO 2019?
Each year we make a number of changes to NEO as we strive to improve the completeness and complexity of our analysis. In 2019, we have:
- Added new scenarios on 2 degrees, electrified heat and road transport, and updated our coal phase-out scenario.
- Added new sections on coal and gas power technology, the future grid, energy access, policy and the LCOE of phase II decarbonization technology such as CCS, biogas, hydrogen fuel cells, nuclear and solar thermal.
- Split Japan modelling into two grids, published sub-national results for China, split hydro into run-of-river and reservoir, added commercial electric vehicles, expanded our air-conditioning analysis and modelled Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Turkey and Southeast Asia in greater detail.
1. Wind and solar make up almost 50% of world electricity in 2050 – “50 by 50” – and help put the power sector on track for 2 degrees to at least 2030.
Global power generation mix
2. A 12TW expansion of generating capacity requires about $13.3 trillion of new investment between now and 2050 – 77% of which goes to renewables.
Cumulative investments in new capacity by country/region ($bn, real 2018)
3. Europe decarbonizes furthest, fastest. Coal-heavy China and gas-heavy U.S. play catch-up.
Solar and wind penetration in the energy mix
4. Wind and solar are now cheapest across more than two-thirds of the world. By 2030 they undercut commissioned coal and gas almost everywhere.
Technology cost-declines since 2010
5. Consumer energy decisions such as rooftop solar and behind-the-meter batteries help shape an increasingly decentralized grid the world over.
Scale of European generation, 2019 to 2050
6. Batteries, gas peakers and dynamic demand help wind and solar reach more than 80% penetration in some markets.
Iberia intraday generation mix, summertime, 2019 to 2050 (GW)
7. Coal continues to grow in Asia, but collapses everywhere else and peaks globally in 2026.
Electricity generation by region (TWh)
8. Gas-fired power grows just 0.6% per year to 2050, supplying system back-up and flexibility rather than bulk electricity in most markets.
Electricity generation (TWh)
9. Making heat and transport electric lowers emissions. The challenge is scale.
Heat & transport electrification scenario
10. To keep an electrified energy sector on a 2-degree trajectory, we will need to deploy additional zero-carbon technologies that are dispatchable and economic running at low capacity factors, or technology that can capture and sequester emissions at scale.
Global electricity generation under 2 degrees assuming electrification of heat & transport
High-level findings of NEO 2019 are available in a free executive summary:
In collaboration with:
- Atin Jain (India)
- Caroline Chua (Southeast Asia)
- Diego Marquina (Europe)
- Jonathan Luan (China)
- Katherine Poseidon (Turkey & MENA)
- Leonard Quong (Australia)
- Martin Tengler (Japan)
- Nicholas Steckler (U.S. & Canada)
- James Ellis (Latin America)
- Luiza Demoro (Latin America)
- Miho Kurosaki (Japan & South Korea)
- Nannan Kou (China)
- Natalia Castilhos Rypl (Latin America)
- Shantanu Jaiswal (India)
- Tom Rowlands-Rees (EMEA)
- Yvonne Liu (China)
- Abhishek Rohatgi (Gas)
- Colin McKerracher (Electric Vehicles)
- Conor Hanley (Decentralized Energy)
- Dario Traum (Policy)
- Jahn Olsen (Carbon)
- James Frith (Storage)
- John Twomey (Gas)
- Laurent Key (Gas)
- Maggie Kuang (LNG)
- Meredith Annex (Heat)
- Nick Albanese (Electric Vehicles)
- Nikolas Soulopoulos (Electric Vehicles)
- Roseline Polle (Modeling)
- Takehiro Kawahara (Frontier Power)
- Yayoi Sekine (Storage)
- … and many other analysts from BNEF’s 14 offices around the world.