NEO 2026 Executive Summary Preview
The 2026 edition presents a new base-case scenario and a major update to our well-below-2C climate scenario. Against a backdrop of geopolitical tension and rising electricity demand, this year’s outlook explores how the global energy system may evolve as countries seek to balance resilience, affordability and decarbonization. The report examines how renewables, batteries, electric vehicles, nuclear and next-generation technologies are reshaping energy globally and within key markets.
The route to 2035 and beyond
The 2026 edition presents a new base-case scenario and a major update to our well-below-2C climate scenario. Against a backdrop of geopolitical tension and rising electricity demand, this year’s outlook explores how the global energy system may evolve as countries seek to balance resilience, affordability and decarbonization. The report examines how renewables, batteries, electric vehicles, nuclear and next-generation technologies are reshaping energy globally and within key markets.
The transition to new energy technologies improves resilience to fossil-fuel price shocks.
Energy security has risen to the top of the policy agenda. NEO 2026 finds that countries reliant on imported fossil fuels can materially reduce exposure to price shocks as electrification and clean power scale. As adoption of solar modules, batteries, heat pumps, electric vehicles, and other technologies accelerates, nations that are dependent on fossil fuels stand to improve their energy security under our base case. This can happen faster under the Net Zero Scenario.
Energy commodity import dependence by market and scenario in 2025, 2035 and 2050
Economic Transition Scenario
Net Zero Scenario
Source: BloombergNEF Trade Transition Scenario Tool, Sinoimex Global Trade Flow (GTF), GCAM. Note: Future imports scaled forward based on 2024 actuals, using domestic demand for related products and services under different scenarios. This projection assumes relative trade patterns remain static and uses the same GDP projections under both scenarios. Negative values indicate imports.
Strong fundamentals underpin growth in renewables, batteries and EVs
In the Economic Transition Scenario, emissions enter a gradual structural decline as clean technologies gain share based on economics alone. Most emissions reductions over the next decade come from clean power and electrification, with renewables displacing coal generation and electric vehicles slowing growth in oil demand. The Net Zero Scenario moves faster and further, combining accelerated deployment of renewables, batteries and EVs with large-scale use of hydrogen, carbon capture and sustainable fuels to drive deeper emissions reductions across industry, transport and buildings.
CO2 emissions reductions from fuel combustion by measures adopted, Economic Transition Scenario versus “no transition” scenario and Net Zero Scenario
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: The “no transition” scenario is a hypothetical counterfactual that models no further improvement in decarbonization and energy efficiency. In this scenario, clean tech build for power is capped at historical limits, with costs fixed at 2026 levels and no further decline; in buildings and transport, the fuel mix remains unchanged from 2026; in industry, the uptake of recycling and alternative primary production processes is limited. “Clean power” includes renewables and nuclear, and excludes carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen and bioenergy, which are accounted for separately. “Energy efficiency” covers demand-side efficiency improvements and reductions in demand.
Many, many things get electrified
Rising demand makes electricity the world’s largest source of final energy in the coming decades in both of BNEF’s scenarios. Alongside electric vehicles and industry, data centers emerge as one of the fastest-growing drivers of new electricity demand, fueled by the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence. Meeting this demand requires a major buildout of capacity and grid infrastructure, as well as new sources of flexibility – reshaping power markets and investment priorities.
Drivers of electricity demand growth, Economic Transition Scenario
Absolute Growth
Growth Relative to 2025
Source: BloombergNEF
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Report authors
David Hostert
Head of Economics & Modeling, Lead author
Matthias Kimmel
Head of Energy Economics
Dr. Ian Berryman
Lead Energy Systems Modeler
Seohee Song
Energy Economics
Anushka Verma
Energy Economics
Kostas Pegios
Energy Systems Modelling
Alice He
Energy Systems Modeling
Amar Vasdev
Energy Economics
Rodrigo Quintero
Energy Economics
Co-authors
Allen Tom Abraham
Industry
Jenny Chase
Renewables
Caroline Chua
Scenarios
Helen Kou
Data centers
Fauziah Marzuki
Gas
Ethan Zindler
Summary findings
Estella Agyepong
Trade
Abdullah Alkattan
Middle East
Meredith Annex
Clean Power
Tushna Antia
Australia
Adithya Bhashyam
Europe
Tifenn Brandily
Trade
Tomas Butelman
Energy Economics
Forbes Chanthorn
Southeast Asia
Albert Cheung
Strategy
Claire Curry
Industry
Mark Daly
Data centers
Anastacia Davies
Renewable fuels
Kyle Disselkoen
Industry
David Doherty
Oil
Shannon Dong
China
Mbongeni Dube
Europe
Ryan Fisher
Electric vehicle charging
Laura Foroni
Power data
Chris Gadomski
Nuclear
Philip Geurts
Petrochemicals
Enrique Gonzalez
Gas
Andrew Grant
Electric vehicles
Lara Hayim
Solar
Julia Hung
Other Asia Pacific
Dr. Ali Izadi-Najafabadi
Asia Pacific
Shantanu Jaiswal
India and Southeast Asia
Shananthan Kalaichelvan
Electric vehicles
David Kang
Japan and South Korea
Isshu Kikuma
Batteries
Felix Kosasih
Southeast Asia
Nannan Kou
China
Reed Landberg
Editorial
Nathalie Limandibhratha
Data centers
Andrew Logan
Editorial
Claudio Lubis
Road and aviation fuels
Jinghong Lyu
Data centers
Sofia Maia
Power data
Colin McKerracher
Transport
Oliver Metcalfe
Wind
Stephan Mothe
Latin America
Nelson Nsitem
Africa
Vinicius Nunes
Latin America
Rose Oates
Renewable fuels
Shige Ogawa
Japan
Kokona Ota
Japan
Sofia Perelli-Rocco
Europe
Hanh Phan
Southeast Asia
Kate Power
Europe
Leonard Quong
Australia
Rafael Rabioglio
Latin America
Pietro Radoia
Solar
Peter Richard Wall
Grids
Daisy Robinson
Renewable fuels
Abhishek Rohatgi
Gas
Thomas Rowlands-Rees
North America
Umer Sadiq
Japan
Kesavarthiniy Savarimuthu
Europe
Kamala Schelling
Editorial
Yayoi Sekine
Batteries
Iryna Sereda
Gas
Ashish Sethia
Commodities
Siddharth Shetty
India
Sahaj Sood
Australia
Dr. Nikolas Soulopoulos
Commercial transport
Analeigh Suh
South Korea
Arhnue Tan
Europe
Sisi Tang
China
Yara van Ingen
Heat pumps
Mohith Velamala
Shipping
Ben Vickers
Editorial
Leo Wang
China
Nick Wang
Other Asia Pacific
Trina White
US
William Young
Financial institutions
Tianyi Zhao
China