Executive Summary
Strong demand has stretched gas turbine manufacturing capacity globally, lengthening delivery times for advanced machines. BloombergNEF’s bottom-up database of 44 assembly facilities across 26 manufacturers shows announced expansions lifting annual output by more than half by 2030. However, if power demand softens, today’s scarcity could become tomorrow’s overcapacity.
- GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries control about 66% of global manufacturing capacity share today, rising to roughly 70% by 2030. They supply 28GW of the 35GW added over that period, almost all of it from expansions at existing plants rather than new greenfield sites.
- Manufacturers outside the big three hold about a third of global capacity today and supply roughly 20% of the new capacity additions to 2030. Caterpillar’s Solar Turbines expands by close to 80%, Doosan Enerbility more than doubles on the back of US orders, and Baker Hughes and Ansaldo Energia both expand their assembly lines, each by 28%.
- Heavy-frame turbines take up almost four-fifths of the additions, growing 59% and lifting their share to 72% by 2030 as utilities and data center-linked projects buy for scale and efficiency. Industrial turbines grow 41% and aeroderivatives 39%, held back by upstream bottlenecks and competition from aerospace, oil and gas and defense sectors for same parts.
- The limiting factors for turbine delivery now lie in the stages preceding final assembly. Capacity depends on upstream suppliers keeping pace across some areas flagged by the industry as concerns: single-crystal blades and vanes, structural forgings, specialty alloys, rare-earth feedstock, generators, controls, heat recovery steam generators, and skilled labor.
- Today’s scarcity does not rule out oversupply tomorrow. The industry has experienced past booms and busts leading to plant closures, supply chain consolidation and bankruptcies. Softer AI-driven power demand, slipping construction readiness or competition from cheaper batteries could push the industry back toward underused plants.
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