Key Takeaways:
- $16.5 trillion: Cumulative global grid capex under BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario, 2026-2050.
- 1.1 million kilometers: Average annual increase in installed global grid length under BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario.
- ~50%: Additional grid capex required under the Net Zero Scenario, taking total capex to $25 trillion, 2026-2050.
Executive summary
Global grid capex grows rapidly out to 2030 and then remains structurally high through to 2050 under BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario. Elevated grid capex is an enduring feature of the transition and not a once-in-a-generation investment cycle. The Net Zero Scenario raises capex requirements further, by around half, and renewable connections account for almost three-quarters of this uplift.
- Distribution accounts for just over half of capex, but transmission sees transformational change, increasing in length by 73%.
- Asset replacement and renewable energy connections dominate, accounting for almost two-thirds of global grid capex.
- Digitalization becomes core grid infrastructure. Cumulative spending hits $2.1 trillion, or 13% of grid capex.
- Aging US and European grids account for almost half of the near 40% share of global capex that is driven by asset replacement.
- China is the largest market for grid spending, but other Asia Pacific markets like Indonesia and Vietnam see notable growth.
- Approach: Grid capex was modeled using BNEF’s proprietary GridInvest model, based on inputs from BNEF’s flagship New Energy Outlook and Electric Vehicle Outlook reports.
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