Electrified Transport Market Outlook 1Q 2024: Speed Bumps

By Aleksandra O’Donovan, Head of Electric Vehicles, BloombergNEF

With 4.4 million units sold globally in the fourth quarter, and 13.7 million in 2023 as a whole, electric vehicles made up 18% of total passenger vehicle sales in the world last year.

But while EV sales are forecast to keep rising – BloombergNEF expects them to reach 16.7 million in 2024 – a likely slowdown in annual growth rates is on the horizon. A regulatory reshuffle in Europe, market saturation in China and uncertainty in the lead-up to the US presidential election could all take a bite out of consumer confidence.

Key Electric Vehicles Stats

Expected and actual electric vehicles sales

  • The passenger EV market in China grew 44% year-on-year in 4Q 2023, with nearly 2.9 million cars sold. The year as a whole saw a growth rate that was almost as impressive, with a 35% rise from 2022 to close to 8.2 million EVs. Still, a slowdown is approaching: BNEF anticipates EV sales in China will climb by just 21%, to 9.9 million units, this year, dragged down by weaker regulations, market saturation and a tough economic outlook.
  • EV sales in Europe fell 11% in 4Q 2023, to just over 840,000 units, marking the region’s first year-on-year decline since 2016. Diminished pressure from fuel-economy targets and subsidy changes in markets like France and Germany will keep growth in the region muted in 2024. Sales are expected to reach 3.4 million cars this year – just 10% more than in 2023.
  • In North America, EV sales rose 37% in 4Q 2023. Some 1.6 million EVs were sold across the US and Canada in 2023 as a whole, up 49% from the year before. In 2024, BNEF forecasts a further 31% growth, to hit 1.9 million units sold in the US and 230,000 in Canada. Still, for that total to be reached, the Big Three automakers – GM, Ford and Stellantis – need to step up their efforts.

BNEF clients can access the full report here.

About BloombergNEF

BloombergNEF (BNEF) is a strategic research provider covering global commodity markets and the disruptive technologies driving the transition to a low-carbon economy. Our expert coverage assesses pathways for the power, transport, industry, buildings and agriculture sectors to adapt to the energy transition. We help commodity trading, corporate strategy, finance and policy professionals navigate change and generate opportunities.
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